Chorus Aviation Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average

CHR Stock  CAD 2.94  0.01  0.34%   
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Chorus Aviation on the next trading day is expected to be 2.94 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.73. Chorus Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Chorus Aviation's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Chorus Aviation's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Chorus Aviation fundamentals over time.
  
As of the 23rd of December 2024, Payables Turnover is likely to grow to 6.09, while Inventory Turnover is likely to drop 5.70. . As of the 23rd of December 2024, Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to drop to about 149.5 M. In addition to that, Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is likely to drop to about 22.2 M.
A two period moving average forecast for Chorus Aviation is based on an daily price series in which the stock price on a given day is replaced by the mean of that price and the preceding price. This model is best suited to price patterns experiencing average volatility.

Chorus Aviation Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 24th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Chorus Aviation on the next trading day is expected to be 2.94 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.73.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Chorus Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Chorus Aviation's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Chorus Aviation Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Chorus AviationChorus Aviation Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Chorus Aviation Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Chorus Aviation's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Chorus Aviation's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.86 and 5.02, respectively. We have considered Chorus Aviation's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
2.94
2.94
Expected Value
5.02
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Chorus Aviation stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Chorus Aviation stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria108.8827
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0025
MADMean absolute deviation0.0463
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0149
SAESum of the absolute errors2.73
The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of Chorus Aviation price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of Chorus Aviation. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting prices into the future

Predictive Modules for Chorus Aviation

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Chorus Aviation. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.892.955.01
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.973.035.09
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.040.040.06
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Chorus Aviation

For every potential investor in Chorus, whether a beginner or expert, Chorus Aviation's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Chorus Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Chorus. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Chorus Aviation's price trends.

Chorus Aviation Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Chorus Aviation stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Chorus Aviation could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Chorus Aviation by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Chorus Aviation Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Chorus Aviation's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Chorus Aviation's current price.

Chorus Aviation Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Chorus Aviation stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Chorus Aviation shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Chorus Aviation stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Chorus Aviation entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Chorus Aviation Risk Indicators

The analysis of Chorus Aviation's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Chorus Aviation's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting chorus stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Chorus Aviation

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Chorus Aviation position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Chorus Aviation will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Chorus Stock

  0.62AMZN Amazon CDRPairCorr

Moving against Chorus Stock

  0.7TKU Tarku ResourcesPairCorr
  0.61TD Toronto Dominion BankPairCorr
  0.35AQN-PD Algonquin Power UtilitiesPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Chorus Aviation could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Chorus Aviation when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Chorus Aviation - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Chorus Aviation to buy it.
The correlation of Chorus Aviation is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Chorus Aviation moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Chorus Aviation moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Chorus Aviation can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching

Other Information on Investing in Chorus Stock

Chorus Aviation financial ratios help investors to determine whether Chorus Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Chorus with respect to the benefits of owning Chorus Aviation security.