Central Garden Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| CENTA Stock | USD 33.79 0.34 1.00% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Central Garden Pet on the next trading day is expected to be 34.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.59 and the sum of the absolute errors of 36.65. Central Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Central Garden stock prices and determine the direction of Central Garden Pet's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Central Garden's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Central |
Central Garden Cash Forecast
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Central Garden's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 1992-12-31 | Previous Quarter 570.4 M | Current Value 753.5 M | Quarterly Volatility 167.7 M |
Central Garden Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 1st of December
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Central Garden Pet on the next trading day is expected to be 34.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.59, mean absolute percentage error of 0.50, and the sum of the absolute errors of 36.65.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Central Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Central Garden's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Central Garden Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Central Garden | Central Garden Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Central Garden Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Central Garden's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Central Garden's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 32.57 and 35.82, respectively. We have considered Central Garden's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Central Garden stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Central Garden stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.253 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.5911 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0191 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 36.6481 |
Predictive Modules for Central Garden
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Central Garden Pet. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Central Garden's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Central Garden
For every potential investor in Central, whether a beginner or expert, Central Garden's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Central Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Central. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Central Garden's price trends.Central Garden Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Central Garden stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Central Garden could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Central Garden by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Central Garden Pet Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Central Garden's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Central Garden's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Central Garden Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Central Garden stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Central Garden shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Central Garden stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Central Garden Pet entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 6180.82 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.35) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 34.02 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 33.94 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.40) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.34) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 66.67 |
Central Garden Risk Indicators
The analysis of Central Garden's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Central Garden's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting central stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.26 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.46 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.59 | |||
| Variance | 2.53 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.28 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.15 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.38) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.When determining whether Central Garden Pet offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Central Garden's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Central Garden Pet Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Central Garden Pet Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Central Garden to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Equity Valuation module to check real value of public entities based on technical and fundamental data.
Is Household Products space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Central Garden. If investors know Central will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Central Garden listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.05) | Earnings Share 1.62 | Revenue Per Share 62.57 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.03) | Return On Assets 0.0446 |
The market value of Central Garden Pet is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Central that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Central Garden's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Central Garden's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Central Garden's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Central Garden's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Central Garden's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Central Garden is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Central Garden's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.