Calvert Aggressive Mutual Fund Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

CAAAX Fund  USD 27.74  0.18  0.65%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Calvert Aggressive Allocation on the next trading day is expected to be 27.74 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.74. Calvert Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
Calvert Aggressive simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Calvert Aggressive Allocation are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Calvert Aggressive prices get older.

Calvert Aggressive Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 25th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Calvert Aggressive Allocation on the next trading day is expected to be 27.74 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13, mean absolute percentage error of 0.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.74.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Calvert Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Calvert Aggressive's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Calvert Aggressive Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Calvert AggressiveCalvert Aggressive Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Calvert Aggressive Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Calvert Aggressive's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Calvert Aggressive's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 27.13 and 28.35, respectively. We have considered Calvert Aggressive's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
27.74
27.74
Expected Value
28.35
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Calvert Aggressive mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Calvert Aggressive mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria112.7199
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0023
MADMean absolute deviation0.129
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0047
SAESum of the absolute errors7.74
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Calvert Aggressive Allocation forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Calvert Aggressive observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Calvert Aggressive

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Calvert Aggressive. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
27.1327.7428.35
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
27.1427.7528.36
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Calvert Aggressive. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Calvert Aggressive's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Calvert Aggressive's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Calvert Aggressive.

Other Forecasting Options for Calvert Aggressive

For every potential investor in Calvert, whether a beginner or expert, Calvert Aggressive's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Calvert Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Calvert. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Calvert Aggressive's price trends.

Calvert Aggressive Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Calvert Aggressive mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Calvert Aggressive could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Calvert Aggressive by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Calvert Aggressive Technical and Predictive Analytics

The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Calvert Aggressive's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Calvert Aggressive's current price.

Calvert Aggressive Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Calvert Aggressive mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Calvert Aggressive shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Calvert Aggressive mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Calvert Aggressive Allocation entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Calvert Aggressive Risk Indicators

The analysis of Calvert Aggressive's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Calvert Aggressive's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting calvert mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in Calvert Mutual Fund

Calvert Aggressive financial ratios help investors to determine whether Calvert Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Calvert with respect to the benefits of owning Calvert Aggressive security.
Transaction History
View history of all your transactions and understand their impact on performance
Idea Breakdown
Analyze constituents of all Macroaxis ideas. Macroaxis investment ideas are predefined, sector-focused investing themes
Portfolio Backtesting
Avoid under-diversification and over-optimization by backtesting your portfolios