Northern Ustreasury Mutual Fund Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average

BTIAX Fund  USD 18.99  0.06  0.31%   
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Northern Ustreasury Index on the next trading day is expected to be 19.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.80. Northern Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
A four-period moving average forecast model for Northern Ustreasury Index is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility.

Northern Ustreasury 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 24th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Northern Ustreasury Index on the next trading day is expected to be 19.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.80.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Northern Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Northern Ustreasury's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Northern Ustreasury Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

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Northern Ustreasury Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Northern Ustreasury's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Northern Ustreasury's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 18.71 and 19.30, respectively. We have considered Northern Ustreasury's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
18.99
19.00
Expected Value
19.30
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Northern Ustreasury mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Northern Ustreasury mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria105.852
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0334
MADMean absolute deviation0.0667
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0035
SAESum of the absolute errors3.8
The four period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and troughs in a set of daily price observations of Northern Ustreasury. However, it also has several disadvantages. In particular this model does not produce an actual prediction equation for Northern Ustreasury Index and therefore, it cannot be a useful forecasting tool for medium or long range price predictions

Predictive Modules for Northern Ustreasury

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Northern Ustreasury Index. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
18.7018.9919.28
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
18.6118.9019.19
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Northern Ustreasury. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Northern Ustreasury's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Northern Ustreasury's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Northern Ustreasury Index.

Other Forecasting Options for Northern Ustreasury

For every potential investor in Northern, whether a beginner or expert, Northern Ustreasury's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Northern Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Northern. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Northern Ustreasury's price trends.

Northern Ustreasury Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Northern Ustreasury mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Northern Ustreasury could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Northern Ustreasury by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Northern Ustreasury Index Technical and Predictive Analytics

The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Northern Ustreasury's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Northern Ustreasury's current price.

Northern Ustreasury Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Northern Ustreasury mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Northern Ustreasury shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Northern Ustreasury mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Northern Ustreasury Index entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Northern Ustreasury Risk Indicators

The analysis of Northern Ustreasury's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Northern Ustreasury's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting northern mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in Northern Mutual Fund

Northern Ustreasury financial ratios help investors to determine whether Northern Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Northern with respect to the benefits of owning Northern Ustreasury security.
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