Basic Materials Mutual Fund Forecast - 8 Period Moving Average

BMPIX Fund  USD 101.91  1.71  1.65%   
The 8 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Basic Materials Ultrasector on the next trading day is expected to be 106.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.12 and the sum of the absolute errors of 165.33. Basic Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
An 8-period moving average forecast model for Basic Materials is based on an artificially constructed time series of Basic Materials daily prices in which the value for a trading day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for 8 of preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited for price series data that changes over time.

Basic Materials 8 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 23rd of December

Given 90 days horizon, the 8 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Basic Materials Ultrasector on the next trading day is expected to be 106.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.12, mean absolute percentage error of 13.53, and the sum of the absolute errors of 165.33.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Basic Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Basic Materials' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Basic Materials Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

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Basic Materials Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Basic Materials' Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Basic Materials' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 104.96 and 107.43, respectively. We have considered Basic Materials' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
101.91
104.96
Downside
106.20
Expected Value
107.43
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 8 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Basic Materials mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Basic Materials mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria106.0123
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 1.6085
MADMean absolute deviation3.1194
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0272
SAESum of the absolute errors165.3288
The eieght-period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and valleys in a set of daily observations. Basic Materials Ultrasector 8-period moving average forecast can only be used reliably to predict one or two periods into the future.

Predictive Modules for Basic Materials

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Basic Materials Ultr. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
100.67101.91103.15
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
86.4087.64112.10
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Basic Materials

For every potential investor in Basic, whether a beginner or expert, Basic Materials' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Basic Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Basic. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Basic Materials' price trends.

Basic Materials Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Basic Materials mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Basic Materials could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Basic Materials by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Basic Materials Ultr Technical and Predictive Analytics

The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Basic Materials' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Basic Materials' current price.

Basic Materials Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Basic Materials mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Basic Materials shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Basic Materials mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Basic Materials Ultrasector entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Basic Materials Risk Indicators

The analysis of Basic Materials' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Basic Materials' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting basic mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in Basic Mutual Fund

Basic Materials financial ratios help investors to determine whether Basic Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Basic with respect to the benefits of owning Basic Materials security.
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