Bank of New York Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| BK Stock | USD 78.83 0.74 0.93% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Bank of New on the next trading day is expected to be 78.83 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.61 and the sum of the absolute errors of 36.61. Bank Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Bank of New York's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Bank of New York's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Bank of New York fundamentals over time.
Bank |
Bank of New York Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 16th of December 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Bank of New on the next trading day is expected to be 78.83 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.61, mean absolute percentage error of 0.63, and the sum of the absolute errors of 36.61.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Bank Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Bank of New York's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Bank of New York Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Bank of New York | Bank of New York Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Bank of New York Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Bank of New York's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Bank of New York's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 77.83 and 79.83, respectively. We have considered Bank of New York's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Bank of New York stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Bank of New York stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.8114 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.1242 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.6102 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0079 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 36.61 |
Predictive Modules for Bank of New York
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Bank of New York. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Bank of New York
For every potential investor in Bank, whether a beginner or expert, Bank of New York's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Bank Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Bank. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Bank of New York's price trends.Bank of New York Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Bank of New York stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Bank of New York could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Bank of New York by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Bank of New York Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Bank of New York's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Bank of New York's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
Bank of New York Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Bank of New York stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Bank of New York shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Bank of New York stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Bank of New entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Bank of New York Risk Indicators
The analysis of Bank of New York's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Bank of New York's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting bank stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.8041 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.5398 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.04 | |||
| Variance | 1.09 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.681 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.2914 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.91) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Bank of New York to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the ETF Categories module to list of ETF categories grouped based on various criteria, such as the investment strategy or type of investments.
Is Asset Management & Custody Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Bank of New York. If investors know Bank will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Bank of New York listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.22 | Dividend Share 1.73 | Earnings Share 4.47 | Revenue Per Share 23.65 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.047 |
The market value of Bank of New York is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Bank that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Bank of New York's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Bank of New York's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Bank of New York's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Bank of New York's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Bank of New York's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Bank of New York is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Bank of New York's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.