Bayu Buana Stock Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average

BAYU Stock  IDR 1,210  10.00  0.82%   
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Bayu Buana Tbk on the next trading day is expected to be 1,218 with a mean absolute deviation of 17.26 and the sum of the absolute errors of 983.75. Bayu Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
A four-period moving average forecast model for Bayu Buana Tbk is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility.

Bayu Buana 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 3rd of March

Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Bayu Buana Tbk on the next trading day is expected to be 1,218 with a mean absolute deviation of 17.26, mean absolute percentage error of 516.47, and the sum of the absolute errors of 983.75.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Bayu Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Bayu Buana's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Bayu Buana Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Bayu BuanaBayu Buana Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Bayu Buana Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Bayu Buana's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Bayu Buana's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 1,216 and 1,219, respectively. We have considered Bayu Buana's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
1,210
1,218
Expected Value
1,219
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Bayu Buana stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Bayu Buana stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.006
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 6.3816
MADMean absolute deviation17.2588
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0133
SAESum of the absolute errors983.75
The four period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and troughs in a set of daily price observations of Bayu Buana. However, it also has several disadvantages. In particular this model does not produce an actual prediction equation for Bayu Buana Tbk and therefore, it cannot be a useful forecasting tool for medium or long range price predictions

Predictive Modules for Bayu Buana

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Bayu Buana Tbk. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
1,2091,2101,211
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
1,1731,1741,331
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
1,2031,2971,390
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Bayu Buana

For every potential investor in Bayu, whether a beginner or expert, Bayu Buana's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Bayu Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Bayu. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Bayu Buana's price trends.

Bayu Buana Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Bayu Buana stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Bayu Buana could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Bayu Buana by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Bayu Buana Tbk Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Bayu Buana's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Bayu Buana's current price.

Bayu Buana Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Bayu Buana stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Bayu Buana shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Bayu Buana stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Bayu Buana Tbk entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Bayu Buana Risk Indicators

The analysis of Bayu Buana's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Bayu Buana's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting bayu stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Other Information on Investing in Bayu Stock

Bayu Buana financial ratios help investors to determine whether Bayu Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Bayu with respect to the benefits of owning Bayu Buana security.