Ayen Enerji Stock Forecast - Simple Regression

AYEN Stock  TRY 29.32  0.36  1.21%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Ayen Enerji AS on the next trading day is expected to be 31.12 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.97 and the sum of the absolute errors of 59.11. Ayen Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Ayen Enerji price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Ayen Enerji Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 23rd of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Ayen Enerji AS on the next trading day is expected to be 31.12 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.97, mean absolute percentage error of 1.45, and the sum of the absolute errors of 59.11.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Ayen Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Ayen Enerji's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Ayen Enerji Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Ayen EnerjiAyen Enerji Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Ayen Enerji Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Ayen Enerji's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Ayen Enerji's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 28.96 and 33.27, respectively. We have considered Ayen Enerji's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
29.32
31.12
Expected Value
33.27
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Ayen Enerji stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Ayen Enerji stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria118.4836
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.969
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0343
SAESum of the absolute errors59.1104
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Ayen Enerji AS historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Ayen Enerji

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ayen Enerji AS. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
27.1529.3231.49
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
21.7923.9632.25
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
28.6430.2131.78
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Ayen Enerji

For every potential investor in Ayen, whether a beginner or expert, Ayen Enerji's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Ayen Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Ayen. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Ayen Enerji's price trends.

Ayen Enerji Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Ayen Enerji stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Ayen Enerji could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Ayen Enerji by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Ayen Enerji AS Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Ayen Enerji's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Ayen Enerji's current price.

Ayen Enerji Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Ayen Enerji stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Ayen Enerji shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Ayen Enerji stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Ayen Enerji AS entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Ayen Enerji Risk Indicators

The analysis of Ayen Enerji's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Ayen Enerji's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ayen stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Thematic Opportunities

Explore Investment Opportunities

Build portfolios using Macroaxis predefined set of investing ideas. Many of Macroaxis investing ideas can easily outperform a given market. Ideas can also be optimized per your risk profile before portfolio origination is invoked. Macroaxis thematic optimization helps investors identify companies most likely to benefit from changes or shifts in various micro-economic or local macro-level trends. Originating optimal thematic portfolios involves aligning investors' personal views, ideas, and beliefs with their actual investments.
Explore Investing Ideas  

Additional Tools for Ayen Stock Analysis

When running Ayen Enerji's price analysis, check to measure Ayen Enerji's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Ayen Enerji is operating at the current time. Most of Ayen Enerji's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Ayen Enerji's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Ayen Enerji's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Ayen Enerji to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.