Avance Gas Pink Sheet Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| AVACF Stock | USD 7.22 0.47 6.96% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Avance Gas Holding on the next trading day is expected to be 7.06 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.27 and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.19. Avance Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Avance Gas' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
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Avance Gas Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 28th of December
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Avance Gas Holding on the next trading day is expected to be 7.06 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.27, mean absolute percentage error of 0.30, and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.19.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Avance Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Avance Gas' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Avance Gas Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern
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Avance Gas Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Avance Gas' Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Avance Gas' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 1.74 and 12.38, respectively. We have considered Avance Gas' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Avance Gas pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Avance Gas pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0128 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2744 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0322 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 16.1904 |
Predictive Modules for Avance Gas
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Avance Gas Holding. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Avance Gas' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Avance Gas
For every potential investor in Avance, whether a beginner or expert, Avance Gas' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Avance Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Avance. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Avance Gas' price trends.View Avance Gas Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Avance Gas Holding Technical and Predictive Analytics
The pink sheet market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Avance Gas' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Avance Gas' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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Avance Gas Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Avance Gas pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Avance Gas shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Avance Gas pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Avance Gas Holding entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 300.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 1.678571 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.07 | |||
| Day Median Price | 7.14 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 7.17 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.31 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.47 |
Avance Gas Risk Indicators
The analysis of Avance Gas' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Avance Gas' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting avance pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.72 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.13 | |||
| Variance | 26.32 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Other Information on Investing in Avance Pink Sheet
Avance Gas financial ratios help investors to determine whether Avance Pink Sheet is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Avance with respect to the benefits of owning Avance Gas security.