Angel Oak Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

AOMR Stock  USD 9.44  0.09  0.96%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Angel Oak Mortgage on the next trading day is expected to be 9.44 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.71. Angel Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Angel Oak's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Angel Oak's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Angel Oak fundamentals over time.
  
At this time, Angel Oak's Receivables Turnover is relatively stable compared to the past year. As of 12/10/2024, Asset Turnover is likely to grow to 0.03, while Inventory Turnover is likely to drop (0.29). . As of 12/10/2024, Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to drop to about 20.3 M. In addition to that, Net Loss is likely to grow to about (160.6 M).
Angel Oak simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Angel Oak Mortgage are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Angel Oak Mortgage prices get older.

Angel Oak Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 11th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Angel Oak Mortgage on the next trading day is expected to be 9.44 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.71.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Angel Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Angel Oak's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Angel Oak Stock Forecast Pattern

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Angel Oak Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Angel Oak's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Angel Oak's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 8.10 and 10.78, respectively. We have considered Angel Oak's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
9.44
9.44
Expected Value
10.78
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Angel Oak stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Angel Oak stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria113.9512
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0107
MADMean absolute deviation0.0936
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0099
SAESum of the absolute errors5.71
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Angel Oak Mortgage forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Angel Oak observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Angel Oak

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Angel Oak Mortgage. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
8.109.4410.78
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
8.119.4510.79
Details
6 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
8.499.3310.36
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Angel Oak

For every potential investor in Angel, whether a beginner or expert, Angel Oak's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Angel Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Angel. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Angel Oak's price trends.

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 Risk & Return  Correlation

Angel Oak Mortgage Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Angel Oak's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Angel Oak's current price.

Angel Oak Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Angel Oak stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Angel Oak shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Angel Oak stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Angel Oak Mortgage entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Angel Oak Risk Indicators

The analysis of Angel Oak's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Angel Oak's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting angel stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Angel Oak

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Angel Oak position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Angel Oak will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Angel Stock

  0.64WU Western UnionPairCorr

Moving against Angel Stock

  0.84WAVS Western AcquisitionPairCorr
  0.67OWL Blue Owl CapitalPairCorr
  0.55MS Morgan Stanley Fiscal Year End 21st of January 2025 PairCorr
  0.55IPXXU Inflection Point Acq Upward RallyPairCorr
  0.53AMP Ameriprise Financial Fiscal Year End 22nd of January 2025 PairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Angel Oak could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Angel Oak when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Angel Oak - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Angel Oak Mortgage to buy it.
The correlation of Angel Oak is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Angel Oak moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Angel Oak Mortgage moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Angel Oak can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching

Additional Tools for Angel Stock Analysis

When running Angel Oak's price analysis, check to measure Angel Oak's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Angel Oak is operating at the current time. Most of Angel Oak's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Angel Oak's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Angel Oak's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Angel Oak to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.