American Shipping Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

AMSC Stock  NOK 27.65  0.40  1.47%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of American Shipping on the next trading day is expected to be 27.68 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.49 and the sum of the absolute errors of 29.19. American Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
Triple exponential smoothing for American Shipping - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When American Shipping prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in American Shipping price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of American Shipping.

American Shipping Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 3rd of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of American Shipping on the next trading day is expected to be 27.68 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.49, mean absolute percentage error of 0.42, and the sum of the absolute errors of 29.19.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict American Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that American Shipping's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

American Shipping Stock Forecast Pattern

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American Shipping Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting American Shipping's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. American Shipping's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 25.58 and 29.78, respectively. We have considered American Shipping's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
27.65
27.68
Expected Value
29.78
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of American Shipping stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent American Shipping stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.1069
MADMean absolute deviation0.4948
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0182
SAESum of the absolute errors29.1944
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past American Shipping observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older American Shipping observations.

Predictive Modules for American Shipping

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as American Shipping. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
25.5527.6529.75
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
24.8826.9829.08
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
26.6827.5628.43
Details

Other Forecasting Options for American Shipping

For every potential investor in American, whether a beginner or expert, American Shipping's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. American Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in American. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying American Shipping's price trends.

American Shipping Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with American Shipping stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of American Shipping could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing American Shipping by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

American Shipping Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of American Shipping's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of American Shipping's current price.

American Shipping Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how American Shipping stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading American Shipping shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying American Shipping stock market strength indicators, traders can identify American Shipping entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

American Shipping Risk Indicators

The analysis of American Shipping's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in American Shipping's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting american stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Other Information on Investing in American Stock

American Shipping financial ratios help investors to determine whether American Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in American with respect to the benefits of owning American Shipping security.