Amgen Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

AMG Stock  EUR 264.00  1.40  0.53%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Amgen Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 269.64 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.38 and the sum of the absolute errors of 267.47. Amgen Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Amgen's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
A naive forecasting model for Amgen is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Amgen Inc value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Amgen Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 5th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Amgen Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 269.64 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.38, mean absolute percentage error of 33.21, and the sum of the absolute errors of 267.47.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Amgen Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Amgen's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Amgen Stock Forecast Pattern

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Amgen Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Amgen's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Amgen's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 267.61 and 271.67, respectively. We have considered Amgen's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
264.00
267.61
Downside
269.64
Expected Value
271.67
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Amgen stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Amgen stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria121.6134
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation4.3847
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0154
SAESum of the absolute errors267.4676
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Amgen Inc. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Amgen. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Amgen

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Amgen Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
263.37265.40267.43
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
226.61228.64291.94
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
263.94270.22276.50
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Amgen

For every potential investor in Amgen, whether a beginner or expert, Amgen's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Amgen Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Amgen. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Amgen's price trends.

Amgen Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Amgen stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Amgen could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Amgen by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Amgen Inc Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Amgen's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Amgen's current price.

Amgen Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Amgen stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Amgen shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Amgen stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Amgen Inc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Amgen Risk Indicators

The analysis of Amgen's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Amgen's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting amgen stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis

Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Amgen Stock

When determining whether Amgen Inc offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Amgen's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Amgen Inc Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Amgen Inc Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Amgen to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Equity Analysis module to research over 250,000 global equities including funds, stocks and ETFs to find investment opportunities.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Amgen's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Amgen is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Amgen's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.