Aligos Therapeutics Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| ALGS Stock | USD 34.53 3.71 12.04% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Aligos Therapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 34.36 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.10 and the sum of the absolute errors of 67.92. Aligos Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
Aligos |
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Aligos Therapeutics' financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2019-03-31 | Previous Quarter 45.1 M | Current Value 35.3 M | Quarterly Volatility 90.3 M |
Aligos Therapeutics Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 13th of December 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Aligos Therapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 34.36 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.10, mean absolute percentage error of 2.19, and the sum of the absolute errors of 67.92.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Aligos Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Aligos Therapeutics' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Aligos Therapeutics Stock Forecast Pattern
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Aligos Therapeutics Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Aligos Therapeutics' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Aligos Therapeutics' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 25.20 and 43.53, respectively. We have considered Aligos Therapeutics' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Aligos Therapeutics stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Aligos Therapeutics stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 120.7328 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.0954 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0866 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 67.9162 |
Predictive Modules for Aligos Therapeutics
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Aligos Therapeutics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Aligos Therapeutics
For every potential investor in Aligos, whether a beginner or expert, Aligos Therapeutics' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Aligos Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Aligos. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Aligos Therapeutics' price trends.Aligos Therapeutics Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Aligos Therapeutics stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Aligos Therapeutics could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Aligos Therapeutics by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Aligos Therapeutics Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Aligos Therapeutics' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Aligos Therapeutics' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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Aligos Therapeutics Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Aligos Therapeutics stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Aligos Therapeutics shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Aligos Therapeutics stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Aligos Therapeutics entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Aligos Therapeutics Risk Indicators
The analysis of Aligos Therapeutics' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Aligos Therapeutics' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting aligos stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 5.78 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 5.95 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 8.96 | |||
| Variance | 80.36 | |||
| Downside Variance | 59.13 | |||
| Semi Variance | 35.41 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (6.31) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Additional Tools for Aligos Stock Analysis
When running Aligos Therapeutics' price analysis, check to measure Aligos Therapeutics' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Aligos Therapeutics is operating at the current time. Most of Aligos Therapeutics' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Aligos Therapeutics' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Aligos Therapeutics' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Aligos Therapeutics to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.