Aligos Therapeutics Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

ALGS Stock  USD 30.82  3.26  11.83%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Aligos Therapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 30.18 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 62.62. Aligos Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
Payables Turnover is likely to drop to 1.16 in 2024. Fixed Asset Turnover is likely to drop to 0.79 in 2024. Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to gain to about 33.9 M in 2024, whereas Net Loss is likely to drop (90.8 M) in 2024.
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Aligos Therapeutics' financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
 
Cash  
First Reported
2019-03-31
Previous Quarter
45.1 M
Current Value
35.3 M
Quarterly Volatility
90.3 M
 
Covid
A naive forecasting model for Aligos Therapeutics is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Aligos Therapeutics value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Aligos Therapeutics Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 12th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Aligos Therapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 30.18 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.01, mean absolute percentage error of 1.93, and the sum of the absolute errors of 62.62.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Aligos Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Aligos Therapeutics' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Aligos Therapeutics Stock Forecast Pattern

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Aligos Therapeutics Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Aligos Therapeutics' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Aligos Therapeutics' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 21.10 and 39.26, respectively. We have considered Aligos Therapeutics' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
30.82
30.18
Expected Value
39.26
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Aligos Therapeutics stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Aligos Therapeutics stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria120.6045
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.0099
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0809
SAESum of the absolute errors62.6164
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Aligos Therapeutics. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Aligos Therapeutics. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Aligos Therapeutics

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Aligos Therapeutics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
20.6729.7538.83
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
3.2412.3233.90
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
2.0216.8231.62
Details
3 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
3.644.004.44
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Aligos Therapeutics. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Aligos Therapeutics' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Aligos Therapeutics' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Aligos Therapeutics.

Other Forecasting Options for Aligos Therapeutics

For every potential investor in Aligos, whether a beginner or expert, Aligos Therapeutics' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Aligos Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Aligos. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Aligos Therapeutics' price trends.

Aligos Therapeutics Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Aligos Therapeutics stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Aligos Therapeutics could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Aligos Therapeutics by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Aligos Therapeutics Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Aligos Therapeutics' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Aligos Therapeutics' current price.

Aligos Therapeutics Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Aligos Therapeutics stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Aligos Therapeutics shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Aligos Therapeutics stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Aligos Therapeutics entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Aligos Therapeutics Risk Indicators

The analysis of Aligos Therapeutics' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Aligos Therapeutics' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting aligos stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Thematic Opportunities

Explore Investment Opportunities

Build portfolios using Macroaxis predefined set of investing ideas. Many of Macroaxis investing ideas can easily outperform a given market. Ideas can also be optimized per your risk profile before portfolio origination is invoked. Macroaxis thematic optimization helps investors identify companies most likely to benefit from changes or shifts in various micro-economic or local macro-level trends. Originating optimal thematic portfolios involves aligning investors' personal views, ideas, and beliefs with their actual investments.
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Additional Tools for Aligos Stock Analysis

When running Aligos Therapeutics' price analysis, check to measure Aligos Therapeutics' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Aligos Therapeutics is operating at the current time. Most of Aligos Therapeutics' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Aligos Therapeutics' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Aligos Therapeutics' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Aligos Therapeutics to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.