Alamo Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| ALG Stock | USD 197.89 0.14 0.07% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Alamo Group on the next trading day is expected to be 192.23 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.55 and the sum of the absolute errors of 220.18. Alamo Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Alamo's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Alamo |
Open Interest Against 2024-12-20 Alamo Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Alamo's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Alamo's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Alamo stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Alamo's open interest, investors have to compare it to Alamo's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Alamo is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Alamo. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Alamo Cash Forecast
Predicting cash flow or other financial metrics requires analysts to utilize a variety of statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools help uncover hidden patterns in the Alamo's financial statements, enabling forecasts of their impact on future stock prices.
Cash | First Reported 1992-12-31 | Previous Quarter 118.5 M | Current Value 140 M | Quarterly Volatility 33 M |
Alamo Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 29th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Alamo Group on the next trading day is expected to be 192.23 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.55, mean absolute percentage error of 19.42, and the sum of the absolute errors of 220.18.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Alamo Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Alamo's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Alamo Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Alamo | Alamo Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Alamo Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Alamo's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Alamo's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 190.11 and 194.35, respectively. We have considered Alamo's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Alamo stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Alamo stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 122.9146 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 3.5513 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0196 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 220.1805 |
Predictive Modules for Alamo
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Alamo Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Alamo
For every potential investor in Alamo, whether a beginner or expert, Alamo's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Alamo Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Alamo. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Alamo's price trends.Alamo Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Alamo stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Alamo could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Alamo by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Alamo Group Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Alamo's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Alamo's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
Alamo Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Alamo stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Alamo shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Alamo stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Alamo Group entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Alamo Risk Indicators
The analysis of Alamo's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Alamo's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting alamo stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.46 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.51 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.09 | |||
| Variance | 4.37 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.71 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.27 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.57) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
When determining whether Alamo Group is a strong investment it is important to analyze Alamo's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Alamo's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Alamo Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Alamo to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Volatility Analysis module to get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data.
Is Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Alamo. If investors know Alamo will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Alamo listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.22) | Dividend Share 1 | Earnings Share 9.93 | Revenue Per Share 138.895 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.04) |
The market value of Alamo Group is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Alamo that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Alamo's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Alamo's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Alamo's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Alamo's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Alamo's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Alamo is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Alamo's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.