Airbus SE Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression

AIRA Stock  EUR 38.40  0.80  2.04%   
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Airbus SE on the next trading day is expected to be 40.72 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.95 and the sum of the absolute errors of 57.84. Airbus Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Airbus SE's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
Airbus SE polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for Airbus SE as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices.

Airbus SE Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 23rd of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Airbus SE on the next trading day is expected to be 40.72 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.95, mean absolute percentage error of 1.21, and the sum of the absolute errors of 57.84.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Airbus Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Airbus SE's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Airbus SE Stock Forecast Pattern

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Airbus SE Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Airbus SE's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Airbus SE's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 38.79 and 42.64, respectively. We have considered Airbus SE's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
38.40
40.72
Expected Value
42.64
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Airbus SE stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Airbus SE stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria118.2989
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.9481
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0271
SAESum of the absolute errors57.8356
A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the Airbus SE historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm

Predictive Modules for Airbus SE

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Airbus SE. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
36.4738.4040.33
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
34.5643.4845.41
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Airbus SE. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Airbus SE's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Airbus SE's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Airbus SE.

Other Forecasting Options for Airbus SE

For every potential investor in Airbus, whether a beginner or expert, Airbus SE's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Airbus Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Airbus. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Airbus SE's price trends.

Airbus SE Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Airbus SE stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Airbus SE could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Airbus SE by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Airbus SE Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Airbus SE's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Airbus SE's current price.

Airbus SE Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Airbus SE stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Airbus SE shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Airbus SE stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Airbus SE entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Airbus SE Risk Indicators

The analysis of Airbus SE's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Airbus SE's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting airbus stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Other Information on Investing in Airbus Stock

Airbus SE financial ratios help investors to determine whether Airbus Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Airbus with respect to the benefits of owning Airbus SE security.