Synalloy Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

ACNT Stock  USD 12.05  0.08  0.66%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Synalloy on the next trading day is expected to be 12.25 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16 and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.05. Synalloy Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
At this time, Synalloy's Inventory Turnover is comparatively stable compared to the past year. Payables Turnover is likely to gain to 14.59 in 2024, whereas Receivables Turnover is likely to drop 6.30 in 2024. . Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is likely to gain to about 19.1 M in 2024, whereas Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to drop slightly above 8.6 M in 2024.
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Synalloy's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
 
Cash  
First Reported
1986-12-31
Previous Quarter
3.6 M
Current Value
8.5 M
Quarterly Volatility
2.7 M
 
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Covid
A naive forecasting model for Synalloy is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Synalloy value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Synalloy Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 5th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Synalloy on the next trading day is expected to be 12.25 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16, mean absolute percentage error of 0.05, and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.05.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Synalloy Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Synalloy's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Synalloy Stock Forecast Pattern

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Synalloy Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Synalloy's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Synalloy's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 9.17 and 15.34, respectively. We have considered Synalloy's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
12.05
12.25
Expected Value
15.34
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Synalloy stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Synalloy stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria115.1753
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.1648
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0172
SAESum of the absolute errors10.0523
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Synalloy. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Synalloy. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Synalloy

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Synalloy. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
8.9212.0115.10
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
11.5814.6717.76
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
10.1710.8811.59
Details
1 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
18.2020.0022.20
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Synalloy

For every potential investor in Synalloy, whether a beginner or expert, Synalloy's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Synalloy Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Synalloy. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Synalloy's price trends.

Synalloy Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Synalloy stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Synalloy could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Synalloy by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Synalloy Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Synalloy's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Synalloy's current price.

Synalloy Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Synalloy stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Synalloy shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Synalloy stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Synalloy entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Synalloy Risk Indicators

The analysis of Synalloy's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Synalloy's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting synalloy stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Thematic Opportunities

Explore Investment Opportunities

Build portfolios using Macroaxis predefined set of investing ideas. Many of Macroaxis investing ideas can easily outperform a given market. Ideas can also be optimized per your risk profile before portfolio origination is invoked. Macroaxis thematic optimization helps investors identify companies most likely to benefit from changes or shifts in various micro-economic or local macro-level trends. Originating optimal thematic portfolios involves aligning investors' personal views, ideas, and beliefs with their actual investments.
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Additional Tools for Synalloy Stock Analysis

When running Synalloy's price analysis, check to measure Synalloy's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Synalloy is operating at the current time. Most of Synalloy's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Synalloy's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Synalloy's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Synalloy to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.