ASSET BANK Fund Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

AAGR11 Fund   96.82  6.81  7.57%   
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of ASSET BANK AGRONEGCIOS on the next trading day is expected to be 88.77 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.39 and the sum of the absolute errors of 141.29. Investors can use prediction functions to forecast ASSET BANK's fund prices and determine the direction of ASSET BANK AGRONEGCIOS's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, exclusively looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading.
  
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for ASSET BANK works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

ASSET BANK Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 9th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of ASSET BANK AGRONEGCIOS on the next trading day is expected to be 88.77 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.39, mean absolute percentage error of 12.64, and the sum of the absolute errors of 141.29.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict ASSET Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that ASSET BANK's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

ASSET BANK Fund Forecast Pattern

ASSET BANK Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting ASSET BANK's Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. ASSET BANK's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 83.82 and 93.72, respectively. We have considered ASSET BANK's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
96.82
88.77
Expected Value
93.72
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of ASSET BANK fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent ASSET BANK fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.4778
MADMean absolute deviation2.3947
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0258
SAESum of the absolute errors141.2878
When ASSET BANK AGRONEGCIOS prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any ASSET BANK AGRONEGCIOS trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent ASSET BANK observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for ASSET BANK

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ASSET BANK AGRONEGCIOS. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Other Forecasting Options for ASSET BANK

For every potential investor in ASSET, whether a beginner or expert, ASSET BANK's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. ASSET Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in ASSET. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying ASSET BANK's price trends.

ASSET BANK Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with ASSET BANK fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of ASSET BANK could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing ASSET BANK by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

ASSET BANK AGRONEGCIOS Technical and Predictive Analytics

The fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of ASSET BANK's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of ASSET BANK's current price.

ASSET BANK Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how ASSET BANK fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading ASSET BANK shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying ASSET BANK fund market strength indicators, traders can identify ASSET BANK AGRONEGCIOS entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

ASSET BANK Risk Indicators

The analysis of ASSET BANK's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in ASSET BANK's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting asset fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.
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