The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of GAZTRTECHNIUADR15EO01 on the next trading day is expected to be 26.44 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.31 and the sum of the absolute errors of 18.23. Investors can use prediction functions to forecast GAZTRTECHNIUADR1/5EO01's stock prices and determine the direction of GAZTRTECHNIUADR15EO01's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, exclusively looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of GAZTRTECHNIUADR1/5EO01's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in board of governors.
GAZTRTECHNIUADR1/5EO01
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for GAZTRTECHNIUADR1/5EO01 works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.
GAZTRTECHNIUADR1/5EO01 Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 7th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of GAZTRTECHNIUADR15EO01 on the next trading day is expected to be 26.44 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.31, mean absolute percentage error of 0.18, and the sum of the absolute errors of 18.23.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict GAZTRTECHNIUADR1/5EO01 Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that GAZTRTECHNIUADR1/5EO01's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
GAZTRTECHNIUADR1/5EO01 Stock Forecast Pattern
GAZTRTECHNIUADR1/5EO01 Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting GAZTRTECHNIUADR1/5EO01's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. GAZTRTECHNIUADR1/5EO01's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 24.88 and 27.99, respectively. We have considered GAZTRTECHNIUADR1/5EO01's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of GAZTRTECHNIUADR1/5EO01 stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent GAZTRTECHNIUADR1/5EO01 stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AIC
Akaike Information Criteria
Huge
Bias
Arithmetic mean of the errors
-0.0677
MAD
Mean absolute deviation
0.309
MAPE
Mean absolute percentage error
0.0121
SAE
Sum of the absolute errors
18.2338
When GAZTRTECHNIUADR15EO01 prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any GAZTRTECHNIUADR15EO01 trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent GAZTRTECHNIUADR1/5EO01 observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.
Predictive Modules for GAZTRTECHNIUADR1/5EO01
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as GAZTRTECHNIUADR1/5EO01. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Other Forecasting Options for GAZTRTECHNIUADR1/5EO01
For every potential investor in GAZTRTECHNIUADR1/5EO01, whether a beginner or expert, GAZTRTECHNIUADR1/5EO01's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. GAZTRTECHNIUADR1/5EO01 Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in GAZTRTECHNIUADR1/5EO01. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying GAZTRTECHNIUADR1/5EO01's price trends.
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with GAZTRTECHNIUADR1/5EO01 stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of GAZTRTECHNIUADR1/5EO01 could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing GAZTRTECHNIUADR1/5EO01 by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
GAZTRTECHNIUADR1/5EO01 Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of GAZTRTECHNIUADR1/5EO01's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of GAZTRTECHNIUADR1/5EO01's current price.
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how GAZTRTECHNIUADR1/5EO01 stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading GAZTRTECHNIUADR1/5EO01 shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying GAZTRTECHNIUADR1/5EO01 stock market strength indicators, traders can identify GAZTRTECHNIUADR15EO01 entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
The analysis of GAZTRTECHNIUADR1/5EO01's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in GAZTRTECHNIUADR1/5EO01's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting gaztrtechniuadr1/5eo01 stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.