The Naive Prediction forecasted value of ELEMENT NUTRSCIENCES on the next trading day is expected to be 0.04 with a mean absolute deviation of 0 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.26. Investors can use prediction functions to forecast ELEMENT NUTRSCIENCES's stock prices and determine the direction of ELEMENT NUTRSCIENCES's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, exclusively looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of ELEMENT NUTRSCIENCES's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in board of governors.
ELEMENT
A naive forecasting model for ELEMENT NUTRSCIENCES is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of ELEMENT NUTRSCIENCES value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.
ELEMENT NUTRSCIENCES Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 9th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of ELEMENT NUTRSCIENCES on the next trading day is expected to be 0.04 with a mean absolute deviation of 0, mean absolute percentage error of 0.000029, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.26.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict ELEMENT Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that ELEMENT NUTRSCIENCES's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
ELEMENT NUTRSCIENCES Stock Forecast Pattern
ELEMENT NUTRSCIENCES Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting ELEMENT NUTRSCIENCES's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. ELEMENT NUTRSCIENCES's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.0003 and 23.66, respectively. We have considered ELEMENT NUTRSCIENCES's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of ELEMENT NUTRSCIENCES stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent ELEMENT NUTRSCIENCES stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AIC
Akaike Information Criteria
109.5172
Bias
Arithmetic mean of the errors
None
MAD
Mean absolute deviation
0.0042
MAPE
Mean absolute percentage error
0.1331
SAE
Sum of the absolute errors
0.2589
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of ELEMENT NUTRSCIENCES. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict ELEMENT NUTRSCIENCES. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.
Predictive Modules for ELEMENT NUTRSCIENCES
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ELEMENT NUTRSCIENCES. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Other Forecasting Options for ELEMENT NUTRSCIENCES
For every potential investor in ELEMENT, whether a beginner or expert, ELEMENT NUTRSCIENCES's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. ELEMENT Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in ELEMENT. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying ELEMENT NUTRSCIENCES's price trends.
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with ELEMENT NUTRSCIENCES stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of ELEMENT NUTRSCIENCES could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing ELEMENT NUTRSCIENCES by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
ELEMENT NUTRSCIENCES Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of ELEMENT NUTRSCIENCES's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of ELEMENT NUTRSCIENCES's current price.
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how ELEMENT NUTRSCIENCES stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading ELEMENT NUTRSCIENCES shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying ELEMENT NUTRSCIENCES stock market strength indicators, traders can identify ELEMENT NUTRSCIENCES entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
The analysis of ELEMENT NUTRSCIENCES's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in ELEMENT NUTRSCIENCES's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting element stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.