Guobo Electronics Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

688375 Stock   47.99  0.77  1.63%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Guobo Electronics Co on the next trading day is expected to be 47.99 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.90 and the sum of the absolute errors of 115.65. Guobo Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Guobo Electronics stock prices and determine the direction of Guobo Electronics Co's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Guobo Electronics' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
At present, Guobo Electronics' Total Current Liabilities is projected to increase significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The current year's Non Currrent Assets Other is expected to grow to about 36.1 M, whereas Total Assets are forecasted to decline to about 7.1 B.
Guobo Electronics simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Guobo Electronics Co are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Guobo Electronics prices get older.

Guobo Electronics Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 26th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Guobo Electronics Co on the next trading day is expected to be 47.99 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.90, mean absolute percentage error of 6.39, and the sum of the absolute errors of 115.65.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Guobo Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Guobo Electronics' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Guobo Electronics Stock Forecast Pattern

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Guobo Electronics Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Guobo Electronics' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Guobo Electronics' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 42.74 and 53.24, respectively. We have considered Guobo Electronics' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
47.99
47.99
Expected Value
53.24
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Guobo Electronics stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Guobo Electronics stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria119.9659
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.2057
MADMean absolute deviation1.8959
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0366
SAESum of the absolute errors115.65
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Guobo Electronics Co forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Guobo Electronics observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Guobo Electronics

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Guobo Electronics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
42.9348.1853.43
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
33.6738.9252.79
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Guobo Electronics. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Guobo Electronics' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Guobo Electronics' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Guobo Electronics.

Other Forecasting Options for Guobo Electronics

For every potential investor in Guobo, whether a beginner or expert, Guobo Electronics' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Guobo Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Guobo. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Guobo Electronics' price trends.

Guobo Electronics Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Guobo Electronics stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Guobo Electronics could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Guobo Electronics by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Guobo Electronics Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Guobo Electronics' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Guobo Electronics' current price.

Guobo Electronics Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Guobo Electronics stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Guobo Electronics shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Guobo Electronics stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Guobo Electronics Co entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Guobo Electronics Risk Indicators

The analysis of Guobo Electronics' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Guobo Electronics' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting guobo stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Other Information on Investing in Guobo Stock

Guobo Electronics financial ratios help investors to determine whether Guobo Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Guobo with respect to the benefits of owning Guobo Electronics security.