Flat Glass Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

601865 Stock   20.98  0.24  1.13%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Flat Glass Group on the next trading day is expected to be 20.02 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.10 and the sum of the absolute errors of 67.04. Flat Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Flat Glass stock prices and determine the direction of Flat Glass Group's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Flat Glass' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
At present, Flat Glass' Total Assets are projected to increase significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The current year's Total Stockholder Equity is expected to grow to about 23.3 B, whereas Other Current Liabilities is forecasted to decline to about 11.7 M.
A naive forecasting model for Flat Glass is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Flat Glass Group value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Flat Glass Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 25th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Flat Glass Group on the next trading day is expected to be 20.02 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.10, mean absolute percentage error of 2.24, and the sum of the absolute errors of 67.04.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Flat Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Flat Glass' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Flat Glass Stock Forecast Pattern

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Flat Glass Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Flat Glass' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Flat Glass' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 15.54 and 24.50, respectively. We have considered Flat Glass' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
20.98
20.02
Expected Value
24.50
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Flat Glass stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Flat Glass stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria118.9164
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.099
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0491
SAESum of the absolute errors67.0403
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Flat Glass Group. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Flat Glass. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Flat Glass

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Flat Glass Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
16.2420.7225.20
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
13.6018.0822.56
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.000.000.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Flat Glass. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Flat Glass' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Flat Glass' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Flat Glass Group.

Other Forecasting Options for Flat Glass

For every potential investor in Flat, whether a beginner or expert, Flat Glass' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Flat Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Flat. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Flat Glass' price trends.

Flat Glass Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Flat Glass stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Flat Glass could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Flat Glass by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Flat Glass Group Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Flat Glass' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Flat Glass' current price.

Flat Glass Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Flat Glass stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Flat Glass shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Flat Glass stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Flat Glass Group entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Flat Glass Risk Indicators

The analysis of Flat Glass' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Flat Glass' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting flat stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Other Information on Investing in Flat Stock

Flat Glass financial ratios help investors to determine whether Flat Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Flat with respect to the benefits of owning Flat Glass security.