Bank of Nanjing Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

601009 Stock   10.81  0.12  1.12%   
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Bank of Nanjing on the next trading day is expected to be 10.84 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.59. Bank Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Bank of Nanjing stock prices and determine the direction of Bank of Nanjing's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Bank of Nanjing's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
At present, Bank of Nanjing's Total Assets are projected to increase significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The current year's Total Stockholder Equity is expected to grow to about 178 B, whereas Other Liabilities is forecasted to decline to about 6.7 B.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Bank of Nanjing works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Bank of Nanjing Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Bank of Nanjing on the next trading day is expected to be 10.84 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13, mean absolute percentage error of 0.04, and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.59.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Bank Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Bank of Nanjing's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Bank of Nanjing Stock Forecast Pattern

JavaScript chart by amCharts 3.21.15Oct 11Oct 21Oct 29Nov 6Nov 14Nov 22Dec 2Dec 10Dec 18Dec 2610.010.511.0
JavaScript chart by amCharts 3.21.15Bank of Nanjing Bank of Nanjing forecast
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Bank of Nanjing Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Bank of Nanjing's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Bank of Nanjing's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 9.02 and 12.65, respectively. We have considered Bank of Nanjing's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
10.81
10.84
Expected Value
12.65
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Bank of Nanjing stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Bank of Nanjing stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0408
MADMean absolute deviation0.1286
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0122
SAESum of the absolute errors7.5885
When Bank of Nanjing prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Bank of Nanjing trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Bank of Nanjing observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Bank of Nanjing

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Bank of Nanjing. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
9.0010.8112.62
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
8.9010.7112.53
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.000.000.00
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Bank of Nanjing

For every potential investor in Bank, whether a beginner or expert, Bank of Nanjing's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Bank Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Bank. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Bank of Nanjing's price trends.

Bank of Nanjing Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Bank of Nanjing stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Bank of Nanjing could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Bank of Nanjing by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Bank of Nanjing Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Bank of Nanjing's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Bank of Nanjing's current price.

Bank of Nanjing Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Bank of Nanjing stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Bank of Nanjing shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Bank of Nanjing stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Bank of Nanjing entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Bank of Nanjing Risk Indicators

The analysis of Bank of Nanjing's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Bank of Nanjing's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting bank stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Other Information on Investing in Bank Stock

Bank of Nanjing financial ratios help investors to determine whether Bank Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Bank with respect to the benefits of owning Bank of Nanjing security.
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