Alchip Technologies Stock Forecast - 8 Period Moving Average

3661 Stock  TWD 2,345  155.00  7.08%   
The 8 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Alchip Technologies on the next trading day is expected to be 2,235 with a mean absolute deviation of 103.90 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5,507. Alchip Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
An 8-period moving average forecast model for Alchip Technologies is based on an artificially constructed time series of Alchip Technologies daily prices in which the value for a trading day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for 8 of preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited for price series data that changes over time.

Alchip Technologies 8 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 5th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the 8 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Alchip Technologies on the next trading day is expected to be 2,235 with a mean absolute deviation of 103.90, mean absolute percentage error of 19,064, and the sum of the absolute errors of 5,507.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Alchip Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Alchip Technologies' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Alchip Technologies Stock Forecast Pattern

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Alchip Technologies Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Alchip Technologies' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Alchip Technologies' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 2,232 and 2,238, respectively. We have considered Alchip Technologies' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
2,345
2,235
Expected Value
2,238
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 8 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Alchip Technologies stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Alchip Technologies stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria113.263
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 8.9437
MADMean absolute deviation103.8965
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.049
SAESum of the absolute errors5506.5138
The eieght-period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and valleys in a set of daily observations. Alchip Technologies 8-period moving average forecast can only be used reliably to predict one or two periods into the future.

Predictive Modules for Alchip Technologies

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Alchip Technologies. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
2,3422,3452,348
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
2,1522,1552,580
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
2,1862,2552,324
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Alchip Technologies

For every potential investor in Alchip, whether a beginner or expert, Alchip Technologies' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Alchip Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Alchip. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Alchip Technologies' price trends.

Alchip Technologies Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Alchip Technologies stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Alchip Technologies could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Alchip Technologies by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Alchip Technologies Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Alchip Technologies' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Alchip Technologies' current price.

Alchip Technologies Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Alchip Technologies stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Alchip Technologies shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Alchip Technologies stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Alchip Technologies entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Alchip Technologies Risk Indicators

The analysis of Alchip Technologies' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Alchip Technologies' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting alchip stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Additional Tools for Alchip Stock Analysis

When running Alchip Technologies' price analysis, check to measure Alchip Technologies' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Alchip Technologies is operating at the current time. Most of Alchip Technologies' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Alchip Technologies' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Alchip Technologies' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Alchip Technologies to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.