Daejoo Electronic Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

078600 Stock  KRW 83,100  5,300  6.00%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Daejoo Electronic Materials on the next trading day is expected to be 80,819 with a mean absolute deviation of 4,393 and the sum of the absolute errors of 267,976. Daejoo Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Daejoo Electronic stock prices and determine the direction of Daejoo Electronic Materials's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Daejoo Electronic's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
A naive forecasting model for Daejoo Electronic is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Daejoo Electronic Materials value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Daejoo Electronic Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 3rd of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Daejoo Electronic Materials on the next trading day is expected to be 80,819 with a mean absolute deviation of 4,393, mean absolute percentage error of 30,497,935, and the sum of the absolute errors of 267,976.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Daejoo Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Daejoo Electronic's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Daejoo Electronic Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Daejoo ElectronicDaejoo Electronic Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Daejoo Electronic Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Daejoo Electronic's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Daejoo Electronic's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 80,815 and 80,823, respectively. We have considered Daejoo Electronic's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
83,100
80,815
Downside
80,819
Expected Value
80,823
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Daejoo Electronic stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Daejoo Electronic stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria135.3437
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation4393.0548
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0428
SAESum of the absolute errors267976.3434
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Daejoo Electronic Materials. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Daejoo Electronic. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Daejoo Electronic

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Daejoo Electronic. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
83,09683,10083,104
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
78,45278,45691,410
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
74,93591,550108,165
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Daejoo Electronic

For every potential investor in Daejoo, whether a beginner or expert, Daejoo Electronic's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Daejoo Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Daejoo. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Daejoo Electronic's price trends.

Daejoo Electronic Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Daejoo Electronic stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Daejoo Electronic could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Daejoo Electronic by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Daejoo Electronic Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Daejoo Electronic's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Daejoo Electronic's current price.

Daejoo Electronic Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Daejoo Electronic stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Daejoo Electronic shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Daejoo Electronic stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Daejoo Electronic Materials entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Daejoo Electronic Risk Indicators

The analysis of Daejoo Electronic's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Daejoo Electronic's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting daejoo stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Daejoo Electronic

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Daejoo Electronic position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Daejoo Electronic will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Daejoo Stock

  0.84123040 MS Autotech CoLtdPairCorr
  0.82012860 Mobase Electronics CoLtdPairCorr
  0.71012700 LEADCORPPairCorr
  0.79024910 Kyung Chang IndustrialPairCorr
  0.82027710 FarmStoryPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Daejoo Electronic could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Daejoo Electronic when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Daejoo Electronic - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Daejoo Electronic Materials to buy it.
The correlation of Daejoo Electronic is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Daejoo Electronic moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Daejoo Electronic moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Daejoo Electronic can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching

Other Information on Investing in Daejoo Stock

Daejoo Electronic financial ratios help investors to determine whether Daejoo Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Daejoo with respect to the benefits of owning Daejoo Electronic security.