Webzen Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

069080 Stock  KRW 15,910  60.00  0.38%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Webzen Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 15,910 with a mean absolute deviation of 231.17 and the sum of the absolute errors of 13,870. Webzen Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Webzen stock prices and determine the direction of Webzen Inc's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Webzen's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
Webzen simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Webzen Inc are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Webzen Inc prices get older.

Webzen Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 6th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Webzen Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 15,910 with a mean absolute deviation of 231.17, mean absolute percentage error of 101,025, and the sum of the absolute errors of 13,870.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Webzen Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Webzen's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Webzen Stock Forecast Pattern

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Webzen Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Webzen's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Webzen's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 15,908 and 15,912, respectively. We have considered Webzen's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
15,910
15,908
Downside
15,910
Expected Value
15,912
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Webzen stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Webzen stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria127.7957
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 18.5
MADMean absolute deviation231.1667
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0142
SAESum of the absolute errors13870.0
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Webzen Inc forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Webzen observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Webzen

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Webzen Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
15,90815,91015,912
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
13,50113,50317,501
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
15,10115,49615,891
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Webzen. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Webzen's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Webzen's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Webzen Inc.

Other Forecasting Options for Webzen

For every potential investor in Webzen, whether a beginner or expert, Webzen's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Webzen Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Webzen. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Webzen's price trends.

Webzen Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Webzen stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Webzen could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Webzen by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Webzen Inc Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Webzen's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Webzen's current price.

Webzen Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Webzen stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Webzen shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Webzen stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Webzen Inc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Webzen Risk Indicators

The analysis of Webzen's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Webzen's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting webzen stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Other Information on Investing in Webzen Stock

Webzen financial ratios help investors to determine whether Webzen Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Webzen with respect to the benefits of owning Webzen security.