Seoulin Bioscience Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

038070 Stock  KRW 7,280  60.00  0.82%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Seoulin Bioscience CoLtd on the next trading day is expected to be 6,435 with a mean absolute deviation of 358.45 and the sum of the absolute errors of 21,866. Seoulin Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Seoulin Bioscience stock prices and determine the direction of Seoulin Bioscience CoLtd's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Seoulin Bioscience's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
A naive forecasting model for Seoulin Bioscience is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Seoulin Bioscience CoLtd value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Seoulin Bioscience Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 6th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Seoulin Bioscience CoLtd on the next trading day is expected to be 6,435 with a mean absolute deviation of 358.45, mean absolute percentage error of 223,213, and the sum of the absolute errors of 21,866.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Seoulin Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Seoulin Bioscience's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Seoulin Bioscience Stock Forecast Pattern

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Seoulin Bioscience Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Seoulin Bioscience's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Seoulin Bioscience's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 6,430 and 6,441, respectively. We have considered Seoulin Bioscience's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
7,280
6,435
Expected Value
6,441
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Seoulin Bioscience stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Seoulin Bioscience stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria130.4264
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation358.4546
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0503
SAESum of the absolute errors21865.7294
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Seoulin Bioscience CoLtd. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Seoulin Bioscience. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Seoulin Bioscience

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Seoulin Bioscience CoLtd. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
7,2747,2807,286
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
6,2006,2058,008
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
7,2807,2807,280
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Seoulin Bioscience. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Seoulin Bioscience's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Seoulin Bioscience's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Seoulin Bioscience CoLtd.

Other Forecasting Options for Seoulin Bioscience

For every potential investor in Seoulin, whether a beginner or expert, Seoulin Bioscience's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Seoulin Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Seoulin. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Seoulin Bioscience's price trends.

Seoulin Bioscience Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Seoulin Bioscience stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Seoulin Bioscience could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Seoulin Bioscience by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Seoulin Bioscience CoLtd Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Seoulin Bioscience's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Seoulin Bioscience's current price.

Seoulin Bioscience Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Seoulin Bioscience stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Seoulin Bioscience shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Seoulin Bioscience stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Seoulin Bioscience CoLtd entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Seoulin Bioscience Risk Indicators

The analysis of Seoulin Bioscience's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Seoulin Bioscience's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting seoulin stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Seoulin Bioscience

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Seoulin Bioscience position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Seoulin Bioscience will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Seoulin Bioscience could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Seoulin Bioscience when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Seoulin Bioscience - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Seoulin Bioscience CoLtd to buy it.
The correlation of Seoulin Bioscience is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Seoulin Bioscience moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Seoulin Bioscience CoLtd moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Seoulin Bioscience can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching

Other Information on Investing in Seoulin Stock

Seoulin Bioscience financial ratios help investors to determine whether Seoulin Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Seoulin with respect to the benefits of owning Seoulin Bioscience security.