Federated Prudent Bear Fund Volatility
| PBRCX Fund | USD 3.92 0.05 1.26% |
At this stage we consider Federated Mutual Fund to be somewhat reliable. Federated Prudent Bear secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.13, which denotes the fund had a 0.13 % return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-seven technical indicators for Federated Prudent Bear, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the entity. Please confirm Federated Prudent's Mean Deviation of 0.8102, coefficient of variation of 825.63, and Downside Deviation of 0.8581 to check if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.12%. Key indicators related to Federated Prudent's volatility include:
90 Days Market Risk | Chance Of Distress | 90 Days Economic Sensitivity |
Federated Prudent Mutual Fund volatility depicts how high the prices fluctuate around the mean (or its average) price. In other words, it is a statistical measure of the distribution of Federated daily returns, and it is calculated using variance and standard deviation. We also use Federated's beta, its sensitivity to the market, as well as its odds of financial distress to provide a more practical estimation of Federated Prudent volatility.
Federated |
Downward market volatility can be a perfect environment for investors who play the long game with Federated Prudent. They may decide to buy additional shares of Federated Prudent at lower prices to lower the average cost per share, thereby improving their portfolio's performance when markets normalize.
Moving against Federated Mutual Fund
| 0.96 | QLSCX | Federated Mdt Small | PairCorr |
| 0.94 | QLSGX | Federated Mdt Small | PairCorr |
| 0.88 | QKACX | Federated Mdt All | PairCorr |
| 0.74 | QKBGX | Federated Mdt Balanced | PairCorr |
| 0.69 | FSBCX | Federated Global All | PairCorr |
| 0.68 | FSBKX | Federated Global All | PairCorr |
| 0.66 | SBFIX | Federated Global All | PairCorr |
| 0.66 | FSBLX | Federated Global All | PairCorr |
Federated Prudent Market Sensitivity And Downside Risk
Federated Prudent's beta coefficient measures the volatility of Federated mutual fund compared to the systematic risk of the entire market represented by your selected benchmark. In mathematical terms, beta represents the slope of the line through a regression of data points where each of these points represents Federated mutual fund's returns against your selected market. In other words, Federated Prudent's beta of -0.84 provides an investor with an approximation of how much risk Federated Prudent mutual fund can potentially add to one of your existing portfolios. Federated Prudent Bear has low volatility with Treynor Ratio of -0.14, Maximum Drawdown of 5.5 and kurtosis of 0.87. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Federated Prudent's mutual fund risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Federated Prudent's mutual fund price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.
3 Months Beta |Analyze Federated Prudent Bear Demand TrendCheck current 90 days Federated Prudent correlation with market (Dow Jones Industrial)Federated Beta |
Federated standard deviation measures the daily dispersion of prices over your selected time horizon relative to its mean. A typical volatile entity has a high standard deviation, while the deviation of a stable instrument is usually low. As a downside, the standard deviation calculates all uncertainty as risk, even when it is in your favor, such as above-average returns.
Standard Deviation | 0.95 |
It is essential to understand the difference between upside risk (as represented by Federated Prudent's standard deviation) and the downside risk, which can be measured by semi-deviation or downside deviation of Federated Prudent's daily returns or price. Since the actual investment returns on holding a position in federated mutual fund tend to have a non-normal distribution, there will be different probabilities for losses than for gains. The likelihood of losses is reflected in the downside risk of an investment in Federated Prudent.
Federated Prudent Bear Mutual Fund Volatility Analysis
Volatility refers to the frequency at which Federated Prudent fund price increases or decreases within a specified period. These fluctuations usually indicate the level of risk that's associated with Federated Prudent's price changes. Investors will then calculate the volatility of Federated Prudent's mutual fund to predict their future moves. A fund that has erratic price changes quickly hits new highs, and lows are considered highly volatile. A mutual fund with relatively stable price changes has low volatility. A highly volatile fund is riskier, but the risk cuts both ways. Investing in highly volatile security can either be highly successful, or you may experience significant failure. There are two main types of Federated Prudent's volatility:
Historical Volatility
This type of fund volatility measures Federated Prudent's fluctuations based on previous trends. It's commonly used to predict Federated Prudent's future behavior based on its past. However, it cannot conclusively determine the future direction of the mutual fund.Implied Volatility
This type of volatility provides a positive outlook on future price fluctuations for Federated Prudent's current market price. This means that the fund will return to its initially predicted market price. This type of volatility can be derived from derivative instruments written on Federated Prudent's to be redeemed at a future date.Transformation |
The output start index for this execution was zero with a total number of output elements of sixty-one. Federated Prudent Bear Average Price is the average of the sum of open, high, low and close daily prices of a bar. It can be used to smooth an indicator that normally takes just the closing price as input.
Federated Prudent Projected Return Density Against Market
Assuming the 90 days horizon Federated Prudent Bear has a beta of -0.8366 indicating as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Federated Prudent are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Federated Prudent Bear is likely to outperform the market.Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Federated Prudent or Federated sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Federated Prudent's price will be affected by overall mutual fund market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Federated fund's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
Federated Prudent Bear has an alpha of 0.0579, implying that it can generate a 0.0579 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Predicted Return Density |
| Returns |
What Drives a Federated Prudent Price Volatility?
Several factors can influence a fund's market volatility:Industry
Specific events can influence volatility within a particular industry. For instance, a significant weather upheaval in a crucial oil-production site may cause oil prices to increase in the oil sector. The direct result will be the rise in the stock price of oil distribution companies. Similarly, any government regulation in a specific industry could negatively influence stock prices due to increased regulations on compliance that may impact the company's future earnings and growth.Political and Economic environment
When governments make significant decisions regarding trade agreements, policies, and legislation regarding specific industries, they will influence stock prices. Everything from speeches to elections may influence investors, who can directly influence the stock prices in any particular industry. The prevailing economic situation also plays a significant role in stock prices. When the economy is doing well, investors will have a positive reaction and hence, better stock prices and vice versa.The Company's Performance
Sometimes volatility will only affect an individual company. For example, a revolutionary product launch or strong earnings report may attract many investors to purchase the company. This positive attention will raise the company's stock price. In contrast, product recalls and data breaches may negatively influence a company's stock prices.Federated Prudent Mutual Fund Risk Measures
Assuming the 90 days horizon the coefficient of variation of Federated Prudent is 778.45. The daily returns are distributed with a variance of 0.9 and standard deviation of 0.95. The mean deviation of Federated Prudent Bear is currently at 0.77. For similar time horizon, the selected benchmark (Dow Jones Industrial) has volatility of 0.89
α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.06 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.84 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.95 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.18 |
Federated Prudent Mutual Fund Return Volatility
Federated Prudent historical daily return volatility represents how much of Federated Prudent fund's daily returns swing around its mean - it is a statistical measure of its dispersion of returns. The fund shows 0.9487% volatility of returns over 90 . By contrast, Dow Jones Industrial accepts 0.8496% volatility on return distribution over the 90 days horizon. Performance |
| Timeline |
About Federated Prudent Volatility
Volatility is a rate at which the price of Federated Prudent or any other equity instrument increases or decreases for a given set of returns. It is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time and shows the range to which the price of Federated Prudent may increase or decrease. In other words, similar to Federated's beta indicator, it measures the risk of Federated Prudent and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time. So if prices of Federated Prudent fluctuate rapidly in a short time span, it is termed to have high volatility, and if it swings slowly in a more extended period, it is understood to have low volatility.
Please read more on our technical analysis page.The fund pursues its investment objective primarily through short positions in domestically traded equity securities and indices. It holds short-term liquid securities such as money market funds, U.S. Treasury securities, government agency securities or other equity securities for liquidity purposes and to cover its obligation to purchase securities subject to short sales in the future. The fund also seeks capital appreciation through long positions on equity securities which the funds adviser believes are undervalued.
Federated Prudent's stock volatility refers to the amount of uncertainty or risk involved with the size of changes in its stock's price. It is a statistical measure of the dispersion of returns on Federated Mutual Fund over a specified period of time, often expressed as the standard deviation of daily returns. In other words, it measures how much Federated Prudent's price varies over time.
3 ways to utilize Federated Prudent's volatility to invest better
Higher Federated Prudent's fund volatility means that the price of its stock is changing rapidly and unpredictably, while lower stock volatility indicates that the price of Federated Prudent Bear fund is relatively stable. Investors and traders use stock volatility as an indicator of risk and potential reward, as stocks with higher volatility can offer the potential for more significant returns but also come with a greater risk of losses. Federated Prudent Bear fund volatility can provide helpful information for making investment decisions in the following ways:- Measuring Risk: Volatility can be used as a measure of risk, which can help you determine the potential fluctuations in the value of Federated Prudent Bear investment. A higher volatility means higher risk and potentially larger changes in value.
- Identifying Opportunities: High volatility in Federated Prudent's fund can indicate that there is potential for significant price movements, either up or down, which could present investment opportunities.
- Diversification: Understanding how the volatility of Federated Prudent's fund relates to your other investments can help you create a well-diversified portfolio of assets with varying levels of risk.
Federated Prudent Investment Opportunity
Federated Prudent Bear has a volatility of 0.95 and is 1.12 times more volatile than Dow Jones Industrial. 8 percent of all equities and portfolios are less risky than Federated Prudent. You can use Federated Prudent Bear to protect your portfolios against small market fluctuations. The mutual fund experiences a somewhat bearish sentiment, but the market may correct it shortly. Check odds of Federated Prudent to be traded at $3.8 in 90 days.Pay attention - limited upside
The correlation between Federated Prudent Bear and DJI is -0.72 (i.e., Pay attention - limited upside) for selected investment horizon. Overlapping area represents the amount of risk that can be diversified away by holding Federated Prudent Bear and DJI in the same portfolio, assuming nothing else is changed.
Federated Prudent Additional Risk Indicators
The analysis of Federated Prudent's secondary risk indicators is one of the essential steps in making a buy or sell decision. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Federated Prudent's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some common measures of Federated Prudent mutual fund's risk such as standard deviation, beta, or value at risk, we also provide a set of secondary indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1088 | |||
| Market Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.13) | |||
| Mean Deviation | 0.8102 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.697 | |||
| Downside Deviation | 0.8581 | |||
| Coefficient Of Variation | 825.63 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.03 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential mutual funds, we recommend comparing similar funds with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Federated Prudent Suggested Diversification Pairs
Pair trading is one of the very effective strategies used by professional day traders and hedge funds capitalizing on short-time and mid-term market inefficiencies. The approach is based on the fact that the ratio of prices of two correlating shares is long-term stable and oscillates around the average value. If the correlation ratio comes outside the common area, you can speculate with a high success rate that the ratio will return to the mean value and collect a profit.
The effect of pair diversification on risk is to reduce it, but we should note this doesn't apply to all risk types. When we trade pairs against Federated Prudent as a counterpart, there is always some inherent risk that will never be diversified away no matter what. This volatility limits the effect of tactical diversification using pair trading. Federated Prudent's systematic risk is the inherent uncertainty of the entire market, and therefore cannot be mitigated even by pair-trading it against the equity that is not highly correlated to it. On the other hand, Federated Prudent's unsystematic risk describes the types of risk that we can protect against, at least to some degree, by selecting a matching pair that is not perfectly correlated to Federated Prudent Bear.
Other Information on Investing in Federated Mutual Fund
Federated Prudent financial ratios help investors to determine whether Federated Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Federated with respect to the benefits of owning Federated Prudent security.
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