Rio Tinto Adr Stock Price Prediction
| RIO Stock | USD 64.14 0.67 1.06% |
Momentum 51
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.161 | EPS Estimate Current Year 6.1934 | EPS Estimate Next Year 5.8541 | Wall Street Target Price 80.125 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.02) |
Using Rio Tinto hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Rio Tinto ADR from the perspective of Rio Tinto response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Rio Tinto using Rio Tinto's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Rio using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Rio Tinto's stock price.
Rio Tinto Short Interest
An investor who is long Rio Tinto may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Rio Tinto and may potentially protect profits, hedge Rio Tinto with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 63.7667 | Short Percent 0.0077 | Short Ratio 2.81 | Shares Short Prior Month 8.5 M | 50 Day MA 61.3894 |
Rio Tinto ADR Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Rio Tinto's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Rio. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Rio can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Rio Tinto ADR. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Rio Tinto's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Rio Tinto.
Rio Tinto Implied Volatility | 0.41 |
Rio Tinto's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Rio Tinto ADR stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Rio Tinto's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Rio Tinto stock will not fluctuate a lot when Rio Tinto's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Rio Tinto to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Rio because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Rio Tinto after-hype prediction price | USD 64.09 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Rio contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Rio Tinto ADR will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0256% per day over the life of the 2025-06-20 option contract. With Rio Tinto trading at USD 64.14, that is roughly USD 0.0164 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Rio Tinto's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Rio Tinto ADR options at the current volatility level of 0.41%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Rio |
Rio Tinto After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Rio Tinto at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Rio Tinto or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Rio Tinto, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Rio Tinto Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Rio Tinto's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Rio Tinto's historical news coverage. Rio Tinto's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 62.86 and 65.32, respectively. We have considered Rio Tinto's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Rio Tinto is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Rio Tinto ADR is based on 3 months time horizon.
Rio Tinto Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Rio Tinto is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Rio Tinto backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Rio Tinto, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.22 | 1.23 | 0.06 | 0.01 | 7 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
64.14 | 64.09 | 0.08 |
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Rio Tinto Hype Timeline
On the 19th of March Rio Tinto ADR is traded for 64.14. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.06, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.01. Rio is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 64.09. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.08%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.22%. The volatility of related hype on Rio Tinto is about 3162.86%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 64.13. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.87. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Rio Tinto ADR recorded earning per share (EPS) of 7.07. The entity last dividend was issued on the 7th of March 2025. The firm had 4:1 split on the 30th of April 2010. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Rio Tinto Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Rio Tinto Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Rio Tinto's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Rio Tinto's future price movements. Getting to know how Rio Tinto's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Rio Tinto may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| VALE | Vale SA ADR | (0.20) | 9 per month | 1.46 | 0.12 | 3.44 | (2.77) | 7.10 | |
| TECK | Teck Resources Ltd | (0.66) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.01) | 3.88 | (3.75) | 13.54 | |
| MP | MP Materials Corp | (0.63) | 10 per month | 2.91 | 0.13 | 10.08 | (4.91) | 19.21 | |
| LAC | Lithium Americas Corp | (0.03) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 6.73 | (5.87) | 18.06 | |
| BHP | BHP Group Limited | 0.36 | 11 per month | 0.00 | 0.02 | 2.13 | (2.10) | 5.88 | |
| GLNCY | Glencore PLC ADR | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 2.73 | (2.91) | 9.69 | |
| PLL | Piedmont Lithium Ltd | (0.12) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.19) | 4.60 | (6.99) | 17.98 | |
| SGML | Sigma Lithium Resources | 0.91 | 6 per month | 2.68 | 0.03 | 7.36 | (4.37) | 16.82 | |
| SLI | Standard Lithium | 0.02 | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 7.01 | (5.97) | 18.40 |
Rio Tinto Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Rio price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Rio using various technical indicators. When you analyze Rio charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Rio Tinto Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Rio Tinto stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Rio Tinto ADR, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Rio Tinto based on analysis of Rio Tinto hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Rio Tinto's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Rio Tinto's related companies. | 2021 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.14 | 0.0533 | 0.0728 | Price To Sales Ratio | 1.74 | 2.25 | 1.8 |
Story Coverage note for Rio Tinto
The number of cover stories for Rio Tinto depends on current market conditions and Rio Tinto's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Rio Tinto is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Rio Tinto's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Rio Tinto Short Properties
Rio Tinto's future price predictability will typically decrease when Rio Tinto's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Rio Tinto ADR often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Rio Tinto's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Rio Tinto's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.6 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 7.2 B |
Check out Rio Tinto Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the ETF Categories module to list of ETF categories grouped based on various criteria, such as the investment strategy or type of investments.
Is Diversified Metals & Mining space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Rio Tinto. If investors know Rio will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Rio Tinto listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.161 | Dividend Share 4.02 | Earnings Share 7.07 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.02) |
The market value of Rio Tinto ADR is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Rio that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Rio Tinto's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Rio Tinto's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Rio Tinto's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Rio Tinto's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Rio Tinto's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Rio Tinto is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Rio Tinto's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.