Merck Company Stock Price Prediction
| MRK Stock | USD 103.12 1.50 1.48% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
27
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.33) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.89 | EPS Estimate Current Year 7.7383 | EPS Estimate Next Year 9.485 | Wall Street Target Price 130.8911 |
Using Merck hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Merck Company from the perspective of Merck response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Merck using Merck's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Merck using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Merck's stock price.
Merck Short Interest
An investor who is long Merck may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Merck and may potentially protect profits, hedge Merck with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 120.2116 | Short Percent 0.0104 | Short Ratio 2.6 | Shares Short Prior Month 26 M | 50 Day MA 106.7626 |
Merck Company Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Merck's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Merck. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Merck can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Merck Company. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Merck's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Merck.
Merck Implied Volatility | 0.63 |
Merck's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Merck Company stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Merck's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Merck stock will not fluctuate a lot when Merck's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Merck to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Merck because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Merck after-hype prediction price | USD 103.21 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Merck contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Merck Company will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0394% per day over the life of the 2024-11-29 option contract. With Merck trading at USD 103.12, that is roughly USD 0.0406 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Merck's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Merck Company options at the current volatility level of 0.63%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Merck |
Merck After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Merck at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Merck or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Merck, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Merck Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Merck's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Merck's historical news coverage. Merck's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 102.01 and 104.41, respectively. We have considered Merck's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Merck is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Merck Company is based on 3 months time horizon.
Merck Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Merck is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Merck backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Merck, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.20 | 1.20 | 0.09 | 0.03 | 7 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
103.12 | 103.21 | 0.09 |
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Merck Hype Timeline
On the 28th of November Merck Company is traded for 103.12. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.09, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.03. Merck is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 103.21 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price upswing on the next news is projected to be 0.09%, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.2%. The volatility of related hype on Merck is about 941.18%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 103.09. The company reported the last year's revenue of 60.12 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 365 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 42.08 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Merck Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Merck Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Merck's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Merck's future price movements. Getting to know how Merck's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Merck may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| PHVS | Pharvaris BV | (0.23) | 5 per month | 2.99 | 0.08 | 7.76 | (6.02) | 21.41 | |
| EAT | Brinker International | (0.15) | 8 per month | 1.25 | 0.35 | 5.04 | (2.48) | 11.91 | |
| AA | Alcoa Corp | 0.02 | 9 per month | 2.61 | 0.12 | 6.10 | (5.76) | 14.99 | |
| EURL | Direxion Daily FTSE | 0.08 | 1 per month | 0.00 | (0.21) | 2.74 | (5.13) | 12.68 | |
| COLL | Collegium Pharmaceutical | (0.86) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 3.23 | (4.47) | 12.29 | |
| OWL | Blue Owl Capital | 0.12 | 13 per month | 1.57 | 0.19 | 3.66 | (2.80) | 12.59 | |
| AMMX | AmeraMex International | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 5.71 | (7.14) | 58.33 | |
| FQIFX | Fidelity Freedom Index | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.38 | (0.29) | 0.67 | (0.77) | 1.81 |
Merck Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Merck price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Merck using various technical indicators. When you analyze Merck charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Merck Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Merck stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Merck Company, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Merck based on analysis of Merck hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Merck's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Merck's related companies. | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.025 | 0.0262 | 0.0246 | Price To Sales Ratio | 4.74 | 4.73 | 4.32 |
Story Coverage note for Merck
The number of cover stories for Merck depends on current market conditions and Merck's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Merck is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Merck's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Merck Short Properties
Merck's future price predictability will typically decrease when Merck's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Merck Company often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Merck's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Merck's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 2.5 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 7.1 B |
Check out Merck Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Diagnostics module to use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings.
Is Pharmaceuticals space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Merck. If investors know Merck will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Merck listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.33) | Dividend Share 3.04 | Earnings Share 4.78 | Revenue Per Share 24.931 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.044 |
The market value of Merck Company is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Merck that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Merck's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Merck's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Merck's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Merck's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Merck's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Merck is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Merck's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.