Southwest Airlines Stock Price Prediction
| LUV Stock | USD 32.36 0.40 1.25% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
60
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.64) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.27 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.7455 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.5832 | Wall Street Target Price 29.759 |
Using Southwest Airlines hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Southwest Airlines from the perspective of Southwest Airlines response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Southwest Airlines using Southwest Airlines' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Southwest using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Southwest Airlines' stock price.
Southwest Airlines Short Interest
An investor who is long Southwest Airlines may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Southwest Airlines and may potentially protect profits, hedge Southwest Airlines with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 29.1133 | Short Percent 0.0842 | Short Ratio 4.92 | Shares Short Prior Month 45.9 M | 50 Day MA 30.6672 |
Southwest Airlines Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Southwest Airlines' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Southwest. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Southwest can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Southwest Airlines. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Southwest Airlines' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Southwest Airlines.
Southwest Airlines Implied Volatility | 1.26 |
Southwest Airlines' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Southwest Airlines stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Southwest Airlines' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Southwest Airlines stock will not fluctuate a lot when Southwest Airlines' options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Southwest Airlines to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Southwest because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Southwest Airlines after-hype prediction price | USD 32.45 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Southwest contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Southwest Airlines will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0788% per day over the life of the 2024-11-29 option contract. With Southwest Airlines trading at USD 32.36, that is roughly USD 0.0255 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Southwest Airlines' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Southwest Airlines options at the current volatility level of 1.26%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Southwest |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Southwest Airlines' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Southwest Airlines After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Southwest Airlines at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Southwest Airlines or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Southwest Airlines, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Southwest Airlines Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Southwest Airlines' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Southwest Airlines' historical news coverage. Southwest Airlines' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 30.61 and 34.29, respectively. We have considered Southwest Airlines' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Southwest Airlines is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Southwest Airlines is based on 3 months time horizon.
Southwest Airlines Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Southwest Airlines is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Southwest Airlines backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Southwest Airlines, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.21 | 1.85 | 0.09 | 0.07 | 8 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
32.36 | 32.45 | 0.28 |
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Southwest Airlines Hype Timeline
On the 28th of November Southwest Airlines is traded for 32.36. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.09, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.07. Southwest is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 32.45 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price increase on the next news is projected to be 0.28%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.21%. The volatility of related hype on Southwest Airlines is about 540.15%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 32.29. The company reported the last year's revenue of 26.09 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 465 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 5.98 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Southwest Airlines Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Southwest Airlines Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Southwest Airlines' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Southwest Airlines' future price movements. Getting to know how Southwest Airlines' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Southwest Airlines may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| JBLU | JetBlue Airways Corp | (0.33) | 8 per month | 4.09 | 0.06 | 7.53 | (6.73) | 31.32 | |
| SKYW | SkyWest | (1.03) | 10 per month | 0.80 | 0.27 | 3.80 | (1.66) | 9.51 | |
| BABWF | International Consolidated Airlines | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.66 | 0.1 | 10.53 | (7.93) | 34.52 | |
| SAVE | Spirit Airlines | (0.01) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 15.29 | (21.43) | 112.38 |
Southwest Airlines Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Southwest price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Southwest using various technical indicators. When you analyze Southwest charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Price Transform | ||
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About Southwest Airlines Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Southwest Airlines stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Southwest Airlines, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Southwest Airlines based on analysis of Southwest Airlines hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Southwest Airlines's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Southwest Airlines's related companies. | 2021 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0249 | 0.0224 | 0.0235 | Price To Sales Ratio | 1.61 | 0.66 | 1.08 |
Story Coverage note for Southwest Airlines
The number of cover stories for Southwest Airlines depends on current market conditions and Southwest Airlines' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Southwest Airlines is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Southwest Airlines' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Southwest Airlines Short Properties
Southwest Airlines' future price predictability will typically decrease when Southwest Airlines' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Southwest Airlines often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Southwest Airlines' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Southwest Airlines' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 640 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 11.5 B |
Additional Tools for Southwest Stock Analysis
When running Southwest Airlines' price analysis, check to measure Southwest Airlines' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Southwest Airlines is operating at the current time. Most of Southwest Airlines' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Southwest Airlines' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Southwest Airlines' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Southwest Airlines to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.