Direct Line Insurance Stock Price Prediction
| DIISY Stock | USD 11.81 2.40 25.50% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
25
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Direct Line hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Direct Line Insurance from the perspective of Direct Line response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Direct Line to buy its pink sheet at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Direct because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell pink sheets at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Direct Line after-hype prediction price | USD 10.65 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as pink sheet price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Direct |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Direct Line's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Direct Line After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Direct Line at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Direct Line or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Pink Sheet prices, such as prices of Direct Line, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Direct Line Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Direct Line's pink sheet value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Direct Line's historical news coverage. Direct Line's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 6.20 and 15.10, respectively. We have considered Direct Line's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Direct Line is slightly risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Direct Line Insurance is based on 3 months time horizon.
Direct Line Pink Sheet Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Direct Line is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Direct Line backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Direct Line, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.35 | 4.45 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
11.81 | 10.65 | 9.82 |
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Direct Line Hype Timeline
Direct Line Insurance is currently traded for 11.81. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.04. Direct is projected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 10.65. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is insignificant. The price reduction on the next news is expected to be -9.82%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.35%. The volatility of related hype on Direct Line is about 3912.09%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 11.85. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.08. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Direct Line Insurance has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.64. The entity last dividend was issued on the 12th of August 2022. The firm had 916:1000 split on the 30th of June 2015. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next projected press release will be in a few days. Check out Direct Line Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Direct Line Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Direct Line's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Direct Line's future price movements. Getting to know how Direct Line's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Direct Line may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| KTB | Kontoor Brands | 2.00 | 11 per month | 1.44 | 0.11 | 3.18 | (2.42) | 16.49 | |
| ROST | Ross Stores | (1.68) | 11 per month | 1.40 | (0.05) | 2.46 | (2.62) | 6.21 | |
| NBR | Nabors Industries | 0.86 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 6.27 | (5.77) | 15.91 | |
| TV | Grupo Televisa SAB | 0.00 | 7 per month | 4.18 | (0.02) | 5.38 | (6.56) | 20.33 | |
| LEVI | Levi Strauss Co | (0.51) | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 2.75 | (2.83) | 11.26 | |
| HP | Helmerich and Payne | (0.55) | 6 per month | 2.44 | (0) | 3.70 | (4.82) | 12.16 | |
| NTGR | NETGEAR | 1.19 | 9 per month | 1.53 | 0.13 | 5.28 | (3.74) | 34.93 | |
| RSVR | Reservoir Media | (0.40) | 4 per month | 2.20 | 0.08 | 3.91 | (3.81) | 9.49 |
Direct Line Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Direct price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Direct using various technical indicators. When you analyze Direct charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Statistic Functions | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
About Direct Line Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Direct Line stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Direct Line Insurance, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Direct Line based on analysis of Direct Line hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Direct Line's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Direct Line's related companies.
Story Coverage note for Direct Line
The number of cover stories for Direct Line depends on current market conditions and Direct Line's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Direct Line is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Direct Line's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Direct Line Short Properties
Direct Line's future price predictability will typically decrease when Direct Line's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Direct Line Insurance often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Direct Line's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Direct Line's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.3 B |
Additional Tools for Direct Pink Sheet Analysis
When running Direct Line's price analysis, check to measure Direct Line's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Direct Line is operating at the current time. Most of Direct Line's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Direct Line's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Direct Line's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Direct Line to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.