British American Tobacco Stock Price Prediction
| BTI Stock | USD 38.82 0.79 1.99% |
Momentum 76
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.138 | EPS Estimate Current Year 4.7589 | EPS Estimate Next Year 4.8991 | Wall Street Target Price 40.96 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.02) |
Using British Amer hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of British American Tobacco from the perspective of British Amer response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards British Amer using British Amer's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards British using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of British Amer's stock price.
British Amer Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in British Amer's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards British. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of British Amer stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 35.2549 | Short Percent 0.0035 | Short Ratio 1.29 | Shares Short Prior Month 5.3 M | 50 Day MA 37.9204 |
British American Tobacco Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to British Amer's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in British. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding British can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around British American Tobacco. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of British Amer's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about British Amer.
British Amer Implied Volatility | 0.46 |
British Amer's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of British American Tobacco stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if British Amer's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that British Amer stock will not fluctuate a lot when British Amer's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in British Amer to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying British because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
British Amer after-hype prediction price | USD 38.86 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current British contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that British American Tobacco will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0288% per day over the life of the 2025-03-21 option contract. With British Amer trading at USD 38.82, that is roughly USD 0.0112 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating British Amer's daily price movement you should consider acquiring British American Tobacco options at the current volatility level of 0.46%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
British |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of British Amer's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
British Amer After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of British Amer at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in British Amer or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of British Amer, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
British Amer Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting British Amer's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on British Amer's historical news coverage. British Amer's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 37.43 and 40.29, respectively. We have considered British Amer's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
British Amer is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of British American Tobacco is based on 3 months time horizon.
British Amer Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as British Amer is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading British Amer backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with British Amer, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.13 | 1.43 | 0.04 | 0.12 | 10 Events / Month | 3 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
38.82 | 38.86 | 0.10 |
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British Amer Hype Timeline
On the 17th of February 2025 British American Tobacco is traded for 38.82. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.04, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.12. British is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 38.86 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 0.1%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.13%. The volatility of related hype on British Amer is about 157.58%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 38.94. The company reported the last year's revenue of 25.87 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 3.07 B with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 21.43 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 10 days. Check out British Amer Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.British Amer Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to British Amer's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict British Amer's future price movements. Getting to know how British Amer's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how British Amer may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| PM | Philip Morris International | 2.57 | 7 per month | 0.97 | 0.16 | 2.37 | (1.65) | 11.57 | |
| UVV | Universal | 0.72 | 7 per month | 1.37 | 0.01 | 1.64 | (2.42) | 7.26 | |
| VGR | Vector Group | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| IMBBY | Imperial Brands PLC | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.60 | 0.22 | 1.85 | (1.43) | 4.92 | |
| MO | Altria Group | 1.12 | 8 per month | 1.07 | 0 | 1.60 | (1.64) | 4.82 | |
| JAPAY | Japan Tobacco ADR | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 1.25 | (1.65) | 5.18 | |
| TPB | Turning Point Brands | 2.85 | 8 per month | 1.50 | 0.20 | 5.20 | (2.46) | 11.30 | |
| IMBBF | Imperial Brands PLC | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.52 | 0.08 | 5.50 | (5.12) | 12.91 |
British Amer Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine British price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for British using various technical indicators. When you analyze British charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About British Amer Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of British Amer stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as British American Tobacco, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of British Amer based on analysis of British Amer hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to British Amer's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to British Amer's related companies. | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0665 | 0.0989 | 0.0818 | 0.0858 | Price To Sales Ratio | 2.67 | 1.9 | 2.47 | 2.34 |
Story Coverage note for British Amer
The number of cover stories for British Amer depends on current market conditions and British Amer's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that British Amer is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about British Amer's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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British Amer Short Properties
British Amer's future price predictability will typically decrease when British Amer's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of British American Tobacco often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential British Amer's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. British Amer's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 2.2 B |
Complementary Tools for British Stock analysis
When running British Amer's price analysis, check to measure British Amer's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy British Amer is operating at the current time. Most of British Amer's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of British Amer's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move British Amer's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of British Amer to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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