Aia Group Stock Price Prediction
| AAIGF Stock | USD 7.84 0.36 4.39% |
Momentum 52
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Using AIA hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of AIA Group from the perspective of AIA response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in AIA to buy its pink sheet at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying AIA because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell pink sheets at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
AIA after-hype prediction price | USD 7.84 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as pink sheet price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
AIA |
AIA After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of AIA at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in AIA or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Pink Sheet prices, such as prices of AIA, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
AIA Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting AIA's pink sheet value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on AIA's historical news coverage. AIA's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 3.11 and 12.57, respectively. We have considered AIA's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
AIA is slightly risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of AIA Group is based on 3 months time horizon.
AIA Pink Sheet Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as AIA is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading AIA backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with AIA, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.29 | 4.73 | 0.00 | 0.17 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
7.84 | 7.84 | 0.00 |
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AIA Hype Timeline
AIA Group is presently traded for 7.84. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.17. AIA is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.29%. %. The volatility of related hype on AIA is about 792.11%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 7.67. About 50.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The book value of AIA was presently reported as 3.44. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.71. AIA Group last dividend was issued on the 12th of September 2022. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out AIA Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.AIA Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to AIA's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict AIA's future price movements. Getting to know how AIA's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how AIA may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| PNGAY | Ping An Insurance | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.96 | 0.13 | 2.92 | (3.02) | 7.73 | |
| AEL | American Equity Investment | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| AAGIY | AIA Group Ltd | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.21 | 0.20 | 3.43 | (2.14) | 7.85 | |
| CNO | CNO Financial Group | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.54 | 0.15 | 2.23 | (2.56) | 6.76 | |
| MET-PA | MetLife Preferred Stock | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.32 | 0.28 | 0.45 | (0.44) | 3.27 | |
| FG | FG Annuities Life | (4.18) | 6 per month | 0.00 | 0 | 3.75 | (4.23) | 12.73 | |
| PUK | Prudential PLC ADR | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.57 | 0.23 | 3.31 | (3.20) | 9.18 |
AIA Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine AIA price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for AIA using various technical indicators. When you analyze AIA charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About AIA Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of AIA stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as AIA Group, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of AIA based on analysis of AIA hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to AIA's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to AIA's related companies.
Story Coverage note for AIA
The number of cover stories for AIA depends on current market conditions and AIA's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that AIA is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about AIA's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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AIA Short Properties
AIA's future price predictability will typically decrease when AIA's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of AIA Group often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential AIA's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. AIA's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 12.1 B |
Complementary Tools for AIA Pink Sheet analysis
When running AIA's price analysis, check to measure AIA's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy AIA is operating at the current time. Most of AIA's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of AIA's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move AIA's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of AIA to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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