Vanguard Mortgage Backed Securities Fund Market Value
| VMBSX Fund | USD 18.44 0.00 0.00% |
| Symbol | Vanguard |
Vanguard Mortgage-backed 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Vanguard Mortgage-backed's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Vanguard Mortgage-backed.
| 11/03/2024 |
| 12/03/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Vanguard Mortgage-backed on November 3, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Vanguard Mortgage Backed Securities or generate 0.0% return on investment in Vanguard Mortgage-backed over 30 days. Vanguard Mortgage-backed is related to or competes with Vanguard Intermediate, Vanguard Long-term, Vanguard Short-term, Vanguard Intermediate-ter, and Vanguard Long-term. The fund employs an indexing investment approach designed to track the performance of the Bloomberg U.S More
Vanguard Mortgage-backed Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Vanguard Mortgage-backed's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Vanguard Mortgage Backed Securities upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.43) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 1.37 | |||
| Value At Risk | (0.49) | |||
| Potential Upside | 0.487 |
Vanguard Mortgage-backed Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Vanguard Mortgage-backed's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Vanguard Mortgage-backed's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Vanguard Mortgage-backed historical prices to predict the future Vanguard Mortgage-backed's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.04) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.03) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.07) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.18) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Vanguard Mortgage-backed's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Vanguard Mortgage-backed Backtested Returns
Vanguard Mortgage-backed owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of -0.0509, which indicates the fund had a -0.0509% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Vanguard Mortgage Backed Securities exposes eighteen different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please validate Vanguard Mortgage-backed's Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.04), variance of 0.0988, and Coefficient Of Variation of (3,365) to confirm the risk estimate we provide. The entity has a beta of 0.11, which indicates not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Vanguard Mortgage-backed's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Vanguard Mortgage-backed is expected to be smaller as well.
Auto-correlation | -0.34 |
Poor reverse predictability
Vanguard Mortgage Backed Securities has poor reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Vanguard Mortgage-backed time series from 3rd of November 2024 to 18th of November 2024 and 18th of November 2024 to 3rd of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Vanguard Mortgage-backed price movement. The serial correlation of -0.34 indicates that nearly 34.0% of current Vanguard Mortgage-backed price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.34 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.32 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.01 |
Vanguard Mortgage-backed lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Vanguard Mortgage-backed mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Vanguard Mortgage-backed's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Vanguard Mortgage-backed returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Vanguard Mortgage-backed has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Vanguard Mortgage-backed regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Vanguard Mortgage-backed mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Vanguard Mortgage-backed mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Vanguard Mortgage-backed mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Vanguard Mortgage-backed Lagged Returns
When evaluating Vanguard Mortgage-backed's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Vanguard Mortgage-backed mutual fund have on its future price. Vanguard Mortgage-backed autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Vanguard Mortgage-backed autocorrelation shows the relationship between Vanguard Mortgage-backed mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Vanguard Mortgage Backed Securities.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Other Information on Investing in Vanguard Mutual Fund
Vanguard Mortgage-backed financial ratios help investors to determine whether Vanguard Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Vanguard with respect to the benefits of owning Vanguard Mortgage-backed security.
| Commodity Directory Find actively traded commodities issued by global exchanges | |
| Investing Opportunities Build portfolios using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your investing preferences | |
| Portfolio Center All portfolio management and optimization tools to improve performance of your portfolios | |
| Price Exposure Probability Analyze equity upside and downside potential for a given time horizon across multiple markets |