Valneva SE (Austria) Market Value
| VLA Stock | EUR 3.17 0.09 2.92% |
| Symbol | Valneva |
Valneva SE 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Valneva SE's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Valneva SE.
| 12/16/2024 |
| 03/16/2025 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Valneva SE on December 16, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Valneva SE or generate 0.0% return on investment in Valneva SE over 90 days. Valneva SE is related to or competes with UNIQA Insurance, AMAG Austria, and Addiko Bank. Valneva SE, a biotech company, engages in developing and commercializing vaccines for infectious diseases with unmet nee... More
Valneva SE Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Valneva SE's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Valneva SE upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 5.03 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1842 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 25.93 | |||
| Value At Risk | (7.65) | |||
| Potential Upside | 10.0 |
Valneva SE Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Valneva SE's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Valneva SE's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Valneva SE historical prices to predict the future Valneva SE's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1541 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 1.04 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 1.69 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.2133 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 1.34 |
Valneva SE Backtested Returns
Valneva SE is very risky given 3 months investment horizon. Valneva SE owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of 0.18, which indicates the firm had a 0.18 % return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We were able to analyze twenty-nine different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate if expected returns of 1.08% are justified by taking the suggested risk. Use Valneva SE Semi Deviation of 4.24, coefficient of variation of 598.0, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.1541 to evaluate company specific risk that cannot be diversified away. Valneva SE holds a performance score of 14 on a scale of zero to a hundred. The entity has a beta of 0.72, which indicates possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Valneva SE's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Valneva SE is expected to be smaller as well. Use Valneva SE treynor ratio, kurtosis, period momentum indicator, as well as the relationship between the downside variance and day median price , to analyze future returns on Valneva SE.
Auto-correlation | 0.56 |
Modest predictability
Valneva SE has modest predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Valneva SE time series from 16th of December 2024 to 30th of January 2025 and 30th of January 2025 to 16th of March 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Valneva SE price movement. The serial correlation of 0.56 indicates that roughly 56.0% of current Valneva SE price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.56 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.32 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.13 |
Valneva SE lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Valneva SE stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Valneva SE's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Valneva SE returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Valneva SE has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Valneva SE regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Valneva SE stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Valneva SE stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Valneva SE stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Valneva SE Lagged Returns
When evaluating Valneva SE's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Valneva SE stock have on its future price. Valneva SE autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Valneva SE autocorrelation shows the relationship between Valneva SE stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Valneva SE.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
Other Information on Investing in Valneva Stock
Valneva SE financial ratios help investors to determine whether Valneva Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Valneva with respect to the benefits of owning Valneva SE security.