Government Securities Fund Market Value
| VCGSX Fund | USD 9.43 0.02 0.21% |
| Symbol | Government |
Government Securities 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Government Securities' mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Government Securities.
| 10/05/2024 |
| 12/04/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Government Securities on October 5, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Government Securities Fund or generate 0.0% return on investment in Government Securities over 60 days. Government Securities is related to or competes with Mid Cap, Mid Cap, Valic Company, Valic Company, Stock Index, Small Cap, and Broad Cap. The fund invests at least 80 percent of net assets in intermediate- and long-term U.S More
Government Securities Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Government Securities' mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Government Securities Fund upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.40) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 1.28 | |||
| Value At Risk | (0.43) | |||
| Potential Upside | 0.4296 |
Government Securities Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Government Securities' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Government Securities' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Government Securities historical prices to predict the future Government Securities' volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.03) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.01) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.06) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.2101 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Government Securities' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Government Securities Backtested Returns
Government Securities holds Efficiency (Sharpe) Ratio of -0.0828, which attests that the entity had a -0.0828% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Government Securities exposes twenty-two different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please check out Government Securities' Standard Deviation of 0.3019, market risk adjusted performance of 0.2201, and Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.03) to validate the risk estimate we provide. The fund retains a Market Volatility (i.e., Beta) of -0.076, which attests to not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Government Securities are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Government Securities is likely to outperform the market.
Auto-correlation | -0.68 |
Very good reverse predictability
Government Securities Fund has very good reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Government Securities time series from 5th of October 2024 to 4th of November 2024 and 4th of November 2024 to 4th of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Government Securities price movement. The serial correlation of -0.68 indicates that around 68.0% of current Government Securities price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.68 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.29 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.0 |
Government Securities lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Government Securities mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Government Securities' mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Government Securities returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Government Securities has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Government Securities regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Government Securities mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Government Securities mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Government Securities mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Government Securities Lagged Returns
When evaluating Government Securities' market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Government Securities mutual fund have on its future price. Government Securities autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Government Securities autocorrelation shows the relationship between Government Securities mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Government Securities Fund.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Other Information on Investing in Government Mutual Fund
Government Securities financial ratios help investors to determine whether Government Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Government with respect to the benefits of owning Government Securities security.
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