Universal Corp (Germany) Market Value
| UVV Stock | 53.50 0.35 0.65% |
| Symbol | Universal |
Universal Corp 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Universal Corp's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Universal Corp.
| 12/27/2022 |
| 12/16/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Universal Corp on December 27, 2022 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Universal Corp or generate 0.0% return on investment in Universal Corp over 720 days. Universal Corp is related to or competes with Highlight Communications, JSC Halyk, CHIBA BANK, Spirent Communications, Iridium Communications, Tradegate, and Gamma Communications. More
Universal Corp Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Universal Corp's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Universal Corp upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.1 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1146 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 7.55 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.52) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.58 |
Universal Corp Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Universal Corp's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Universal Corp's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Universal Corp historical prices to predict the future Universal Corp's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1443 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.2699 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.0778 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.1331 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.63) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Universal Corp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Universal Corp Backtested Returns
Universal Corp appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. Universal Corp owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of 0.2, which indicates the firm had a 0.2% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-nine technical indicators for Universal Corp, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the company. Please review Universal Corp's Coefficient Of Variation of 517.8, semi deviation of 0.7941, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.1443 to confirm if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Universal Corp holds a performance score of 15. The entity has a beta of -0.37, which indicates possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Universal Corp are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Universal Corp is likely to outperform the market. Please check Universal Corp's sortino ratio, skewness, price action indicator, as well as the relationship between the potential upside and rate of daily change , to make a quick decision on whether Universal Corp's existing price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | 0.48 |
Average predictability
Universal Corp has average predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Universal Corp time series from 27th of December 2022 to 22nd of December 2023 and 22nd of December 2023 to 16th of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Universal Corp price movement. The serial correlation of 0.48 indicates that about 48.0% of current Universal Corp price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.48 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.17 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 14.2 |
Universal Corp lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Universal Corp stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Universal Corp's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Universal Corp returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Universal Corp has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Universal Corp regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Universal Corp stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Universal Corp stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Universal Corp stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Universal Corp Lagged Returns
When evaluating Universal Corp's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Universal Corp stock have on its future price. Universal Corp autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Universal Corp autocorrelation shows the relationship between Universal Corp stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Universal Corp.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Thematic Opportunities
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Additional Tools for Universal Stock Analysis
When running Universal Corp's price analysis, check to measure Universal Corp's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Universal Corp is operating at the current time. Most of Universal Corp's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Universal Corp's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Universal Corp's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Universal Corp to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.