TRAVELERS's market value is the price at which a share of TRAVELERS trades on an exchange. It measures the collective expectations of TRAVELERS INC 405 investors about the bond's future performance. With this module, you can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of TRAVELERS INC 405 and determine expected loss or profit from investing in TRAVELERS over a given investment horizon. Check out TRAVELERS Correlation, TRAVELERS Volatility and TRAVELERS Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on TRAVELERS.
Please note, there is a significant difference between TRAVELERS's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if TRAVELERS is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, TRAVELERS's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.
TRAVELERS 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to TRAVELERS's bond what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of TRAVELERS.
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure TRAVELERS's bond current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess TRAVELERS INC 405 upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for TRAVELERS's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as TRAVELERS's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use TRAVELERS historical prices to predict the future TRAVELERS's volatility.
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as TRAVELERS. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against TRAVELERS's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, TRAVELERS's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in TRAVELERS INC 405.
TRAVELERS INC 405 Backtested Returns
At this point, TRAVELERS is very steady. TRAVELERS INC 405 retains Efficiency (Sharpe Ratio) of 0.0231, which indicates the bond had a 0.0231% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-seven technical indicators for TRAVELERS, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the bond. Please validate TRAVELERS's risk adjusted performance of 0.0401, and Downside Deviation of 1.79 to confirm if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0626%. The entity owns a Beta (Systematic Risk) of 0.15, which indicates not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, TRAVELERS's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding TRAVELERS is expected to be smaller as well.
Auto-correlation
0.07
Virtually no predictability
TRAVELERS INC 405 has virtually no predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between TRAVELERS time series from 8th of December 2024 to 23rd of December 2024 and 23rd of December 2024 to 7th of January 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of TRAVELERS INC 405 price movement. The serial correlation of 0.07 indicates that barely 7.0% of current TRAVELERS price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
Correlation Coefficient
0.07
Spearman Rank Test
0.2
Residual Average
0.0
Price Variance
9.85
TRAVELERS INC 405 lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is TRAVELERS bond's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting TRAVELERS's bond expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of TRAVELERS returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that TRAVELERS has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the bond is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values
Timeline
TRAVELERS regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If TRAVELERS bond is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if TRAVELERS bond is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in TRAVELERS bond over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices
Timeline
TRAVELERS Lagged Returns
When evaluating TRAVELERS's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of TRAVELERS bond have on its future price. TRAVELERS autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, TRAVELERS autocorrelation shows the relationship between TRAVELERS bond current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in TRAVELERS INC 405.
Regressed Prices
Timeline
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.
TRAVELERS financial ratios help investors to determine whether TRAVELERS Bond is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in TRAVELERS with respect to the benefits of owning TRAVELERS security.