United Parcel (Germany) Market Value
| UPAB Stock | EUR 121.22 1.10 0.92% |
| Symbol | United |
United Parcel 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to United Parcel's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of United Parcel.
| 10/23/2024 |
| 12/22/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in United Parcel on October 23, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding United Parcel Service or generate 0.0% return on investment in United Parcel over 60 days. United Parcel is related to or competes with Deutsche Post, FedEx, DSV Panalpina, ZTO Express, Bollor SE, and Expeditors International. United Parcel Service, Inc. provides letter and package delivery, specialized transportation, logistics, and financial s... More
United Parcel Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure United Parcel's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess United Parcel Service upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.21 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0483 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 7.38 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.26) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.72 |
United Parcel Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for United Parcel's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as United Parcel's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use United Parcel historical prices to predict the future United Parcel's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0607 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.0864 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.0506 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0561 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.5546 |
United Parcel Service Backtested Returns
At this point, United Parcel is very steady. United Parcel Service owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of 0.0725, which indicates the firm had a 0.0725% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-nine technical indicators for United Parcel Service, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the company. Please validate United Parcel's Semi Deviation of 1.13, coefficient of variation of 1405.1, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0607 to confirm if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.1%. United Parcel has a performance score of 5 on a scale of 0 to 100. The entity has a beta of 0.16, which indicates not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, United Parcel's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding United Parcel is expected to be smaller as well. United Parcel Service right now has a risk of 1.4%. Please validate United Parcel standard deviation, total risk alpha, treynor ratio, as well as the relationship between the jensen alpha and sortino ratio , to decide if United Parcel will be following its existing price patterns.
Auto-correlation | -0.04 |
Very weak reverse predictability
United Parcel Service has very weak reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between United Parcel time series from 23rd of October 2024 to 22nd of November 2024 and 22nd of November 2024 to 22nd of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of United Parcel Service price movement. The serial correlation of -0.04 indicates that only as little as 4.0% of current United Parcel price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.04 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.17 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 11.78 |
United Parcel Service lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is United Parcel stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting United Parcel's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of United Parcel returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that United Parcel has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
United Parcel regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If United Parcel stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if United Parcel stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in United Parcel stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
United Parcel Lagged Returns
When evaluating United Parcel's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of United Parcel stock have on its future price. United Parcel autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, United Parcel autocorrelation shows the relationship between United Parcel stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in United Parcel Service.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in United Stock
When determining whether United Parcel Service is a strong investment it is important to analyze United Parcel's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact United Parcel's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding United Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out United Parcel Correlation, United Parcel Volatility and United Parcel Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on United Parcel. You can also try the Portfolio Center module to all portfolio management and optimization tools to improve performance of your portfolios.
United Parcel technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.