Unggul Indah (Indonesia) Market Value
| UNIC Stock | IDR 8,250 300.00 3.77% |
| Symbol | Unggul |
Unggul Indah 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Unggul Indah's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Unggul Indah.
| 10/05/2024 |
| 12/04/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Unggul Indah on October 5, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Unggul Indah Cahaya or generate 0.0% return on investment in Unggul Indah over 60 days. Unggul Indah is related to or competes with Trias Sentosa, Suparma Tbk, Tembaga Mulia, Surya Toto, and Indo Acidatama. More
Unggul Indah Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Unggul Indah's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Unggul Indah Cahaya upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.05 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.01) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 6.87 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.53) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.26 |
Unggul Indah Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Unggul Indah's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Unggul Indah's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Unggul Indah historical prices to predict the future Unggul Indah's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0733 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.0985 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.06) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.01) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (4.37) |
Unggul Indah Cahaya Backtested Returns
As of now, Unggul Stock is very steady. Unggul Indah Cahaya owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of 0.0901, which indicates the firm had a 0.0901% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found thirty technical indicators for Unggul Indah Cahaya, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the company. Please validate Unggul Indah's Coefficient Of Variation of 1091.03, risk adjusted performance of 0.0733, and Semi Deviation of 0.6466 to confirm if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.11%. Unggul Indah has a performance score of 7 on a scale of 0 to 100. The entity has a beta of -0.022, which indicates not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Unggul Indah are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Unggul Indah is likely to outperform the market. Unggul Indah Cahaya right now has a risk of 1.18%. Please validate Unggul Indah coefficient of variation, jensen alpha, sortino ratio, as well as the relationship between the standard deviation and total risk alpha , to decide if Unggul Indah will be following its existing price patterns.
Auto-correlation | -0.37 |
Poor reverse predictability
Unggul Indah Cahaya has poor reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Unggul Indah time series from 5th of October 2024 to 4th of November 2024 and 4th of November 2024 to 4th of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Unggul Indah Cahaya price movement. The serial correlation of -0.37 indicates that just about 37.0% of current Unggul Indah price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.37 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.07 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 4577.66 |
Unggul Indah Cahaya lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Unggul Indah stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Unggul Indah's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Unggul Indah returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Unggul Indah has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Unggul Indah regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Unggul Indah stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Unggul Indah stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Unggul Indah stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Unggul Indah Lagged Returns
When evaluating Unggul Indah's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Unggul Indah stock have on its future price. Unggul Indah autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Unggul Indah autocorrelation shows the relationship between Unggul Indah stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Unggul Indah Cahaya.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Unggul Indah financial ratios help investors to determine whether Unggul Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Unggul with respect to the benefits of owning Unggul Indah security.