Trencor (South Africa) Market Value
| TRE Stock | 107.00 1.00 0.94% |
| Symbol | Trencor |
Trencor 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Trencor's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Trencor.
| 12/14/2024 |
| 03/14/2025 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Trencor on December 14, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Trencor or generate 0.0% return on investment in Trencor over 90 days. Trencor is related to or competes with CA Sales, Harmony Gold, HomeChoice Investments, Frontier Transport, and Life Healthcare. More
Trencor Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Trencor's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Trencor upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.09) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 90.38 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.75) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.55 |
Trencor Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Trencor's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Trencor's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Trencor historical prices to predict the future Trencor's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.08) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (1.27) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.7352 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.9699 |
Trencor Backtested Returns
Trencor owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of -0.11, which indicates the firm had a -0.11 % return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Trencor exposes twenty-two different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please validate Trencor's Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.08), coefficient of variation of (996.23), and Variance of 119.65 to confirm the risk estimate we provide. The entity has a beta of -1.14, which indicates a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market becomes more bullish, returns on owning Trencor are expected to decrease slowly. On the other hand, during market turmoil, Trencor is expected to outperform it slightly. At this point, Trencor has a negative expected return of -1.25%. Please make sure to validate Trencor's maximum drawdown, accumulation distribution, and the relationship between the total risk alpha and skewness , to decide if Trencor performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | -0.65 |
Very good reverse predictability
Trencor has very good reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Trencor time series from 14th of December 2024 to 28th of January 2025 and 28th of January 2025 to 14th of March 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Trencor price movement. The serial correlation of -0.65 indicates that roughly 65.0% of current Trencor price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.65 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.32 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 125.5 K |
Trencor lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Trencor stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Trencor's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Trencor returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Trencor has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Trencor regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Trencor stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Trencor stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Trencor stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Trencor Lagged Returns
When evaluating Trencor's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Trencor stock have on its future price. Trencor autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Trencor autocorrelation shows the relationship between Trencor stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Trencor.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Other Information on Investing in Trencor Stock
Trencor financial ratios help investors to determine whether Trencor Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Trencor with respect to the benefits of owning Trencor security.