Timah Persero (Indonesia) Market Value
| TINS Stock | IDR 1,015 15.00 1.46% |
| Symbol | Timah |
Timah Persero 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Timah Persero's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Timah Persero.
| 12/18/2024 |
| 03/18/2025 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Timah Persero on December 18, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Timah Persero Tbk or generate 0.0% return on investment in Timah Persero over 90 days. Timah Persero is related to or competes with Vale Indonesia, Aneka Tambang, Bukit Asam, Perusahaan Gas, and Medco Energi. More
Timah Persero Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Timah Persero's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Timah Persero Tbk upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.01) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 15.88 | |||
| Value At Risk | (5.38) | |||
| Potential Upside | 5.47 |
Timah Persero Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Timah Persero's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Timah Persero's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Timah Persero historical prices to predict the future Timah Persero's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.03) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.11) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.2691 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.39) |
Timah Persero Tbk Backtested Returns
Timah Persero Tbk owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of -0.0316, which indicates the firm had a -0.0316 % return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Timah Persero Tbk exposes twenty-three different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please validate Timah Persero's Coefficient Of Variation of (2,360), risk adjusted performance of (0.03), and Variance of 11.34 to confirm the risk estimate we provide. The entity has a beta of 0.39, which indicates possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Timah Persero's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Timah Persero is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, Timah Persero Tbk has a negative expected return of -0.11%. Please make sure to validate Timah Persero's value at risk, skewness, and the relationship between the maximum drawdown and potential upside , to decide if Timah Persero Tbk performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | -0.32 |
Poor reverse predictability
Timah Persero Tbk has poor reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Timah Persero time series from 18th of December 2024 to 1st of February 2025 and 1st of February 2025 to 18th of March 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Timah Persero Tbk price movement. The serial correlation of -0.32 indicates that nearly 32.0% of current Timah Persero price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.32 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.01 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 1616.94 |
Timah Persero Tbk lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Timah Persero stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Timah Persero's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Timah Persero returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Timah Persero has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Timah Persero regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Timah Persero stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Timah Persero stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Timah Persero stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Timah Persero Lagged Returns
When evaluating Timah Persero's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Timah Persero stock have on its future price. Timah Persero autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Timah Persero autocorrelation shows the relationship between Timah Persero stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Timah Persero Tbk.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Timah Persero financial ratios help investors to determine whether Timah Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Timah with respect to the benefits of owning Timah Persero security.