Thornburg Developing World Fund Market Value
| THDCX Fund | USD 20.99 0.07 0.33% |
| Symbol | Thornburg |
Thornburg Developing 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Thornburg Developing's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Thornburg Developing.
| 06/17/2024 |
| 12/14/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Thornburg Developing on June 17, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Thornburg Developing World or generate 0.0% return on investment in Thornburg Developing over 180 days. Thornburg Developing is related to or competes with Hennessy, Short Oil, Energy Basic, Icon Natural, and Firsthand Alternative. Under normal market conditions the fund invests at least 80 percent of its net assets in equity securities of issuers which the advisor views as having substantial economic ties to one or more developing countries. More
Thornburg Developing Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Thornburg Developing's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Thornburg Developing World upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 0.791 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.04) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 4.36 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.29) | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.23 |
Thornburg Developing Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Thornburg Developing's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Thornburg Developing's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Thornburg Developing historical prices to predict the future Thornburg Developing's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0633 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.0466 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.04) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.04) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.4904 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Thornburg Developing's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Thornburg Developing Backtested Returns
At this stage we consider Thornburg Mutual Fund to be very steady. Thornburg Developing owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of 0.077, which indicates the fund had a 0.077% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-seven technical indicators for Thornburg Developing World, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the fund. Please validate Thornburg Developing's Coefficient Of Variation of 1156.83, risk adjusted performance of 0.0633, and Semi Deviation of 0.7056 to confirm if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0607%. The entity has a beta of 0.12, which indicates not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Thornburg Developing's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Thornburg Developing is expected to be smaller as well.
Auto-correlation | 0.33 |
Below average predictability
Thornburg Developing World has below average predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Thornburg Developing time series from 17th of June 2024 to 15th of September 2024 and 15th of September 2024 to 14th of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Thornburg Developing price movement. The serial correlation of 0.33 indicates that nearly 33.0% of current Thornburg Developing price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.33 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.3 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.2 |
Thornburg Developing lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Thornburg Developing mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Thornburg Developing's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Thornburg Developing returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Thornburg Developing has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Thornburg Developing regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Thornburg Developing mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Thornburg Developing mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Thornburg Developing mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Thornburg Developing Lagged Returns
When evaluating Thornburg Developing's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Thornburg Developing mutual fund have on its future price. Thornburg Developing autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Thornburg Developing autocorrelation shows the relationship between Thornburg Developing mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Thornburg Developing World.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Other Information on Investing in Thornburg Mutual Fund
Thornburg Developing financial ratios help investors to determine whether Thornburg Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Thornburg with respect to the benefits of owning Thornburg Developing security.
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