Transcoal Pacific (Indonesia) Market Value
| TCPI Stock | 7,100 100.00 1.43% |
| Symbol | Transcoal |
Transcoal Pacific 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Transcoal Pacific's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Transcoal Pacific.
| 01/28/2025 |
| 02/27/2025 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Transcoal Pacific on January 28, 2025 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Transcoal Pacific Tbk or generate 0.0% return on investment in Transcoal Pacific over 30 days. Transcoal Pacific is related to or competes with Bank Tabungan, Chandra Asri, Mitra Keluarga, Merdeka Copper, and Pelita Samudera. More
Transcoal Pacific Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Transcoal Pacific's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Transcoal Pacific Tbk upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 2.47 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0017 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 10.97 | |||
| Value At Risk | (3.70) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.33 |
Transcoal Pacific Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Transcoal Pacific's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Transcoal Pacific's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Transcoal Pacific historical prices to predict the future Transcoal Pacific's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0087 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.0129 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0012 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.0178 |
Transcoal Pacific Tbk Backtested Returns
Transcoal Pacific Tbk owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of -0.0571, which indicates the firm had a -0.0571 % return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Transcoal Pacific Tbk exposes twenty-nine different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please validate Transcoal Pacific's Coefficient Of Variation of 28083.52, semi deviation of 2.24, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0087 to confirm the risk estimate we provide. The entity has a beta of -0.19, which indicates not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Transcoal Pacific are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Transcoal Pacific is likely to outperform the market. At this point, Transcoal Pacific Tbk has a negative expected return of -0.11%. Please make sure to validate Transcoal Pacific's coefficient of variation, jensen alpha, and the relationship between the downside deviation and standard deviation , to decide if Transcoal Pacific Tbk performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | 0.73 |
Good predictability
Transcoal Pacific Tbk has good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Transcoal Pacific time series from 28th of January 2025 to 12th of February 2025 and 12th of February 2025 to 27th of February 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Transcoal Pacific Tbk price movement. The serial correlation of 0.73 indicates that around 73.0% of current Transcoal Pacific price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.73 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.66 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 15.4 K |
Transcoal Pacific Tbk lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Transcoal Pacific stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Transcoal Pacific's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Transcoal Pacific returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Transcoal Pacific has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Transcoal Pacific regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Transcoal Pacific stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Transcoal Pacific stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Transcoal Pacific stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Transcoal Pacific Lagged Returns
When evaluating Transcoal Pacific's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Transcoal Pacific stock have on its future price. Transcoal Pacific autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Transcoal Pacific autocorrelation shows the relationship between Transcoal Pacific stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Transcoal Pacific Tbk.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Transcoal Pacific financial ratios help investors to determine whether Transcoal Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Transcoal with respect to the benefits of owning Transcoal Pacific security.