Star Petroleum (Thailand) Market Value
| SPRC Stock | THB 5.35 0.30 5.94% |
| Symbol | Star |
Star Petroleum 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Star Petroleum's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Star Petroleum.
| 12/16/2024 |
| 03/16/2025 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Star Petroleum on December 16, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Star Petroleum Refining or generate 0.0% return on investment in Star Petroleum over 90 days. Star Petroleum is related to or competes with Thai Oil, IRPC Public, PTT Global, and PTT Exploration. Star Petroleum Refining Public Company Limited owns and operates a petroleum refinery in the Rayong Province of Thailand More
Star Petroleum Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Star Petroleum's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Star Petroleum Refining upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.09) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 12.56 | |||
| Value At Risk | (4.45) | |||
| Potential Upside | 3.58 |
Star Petroleum Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Star Petroleum's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Star Petroleum's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Star Petroleum historical prices to predict the future Star Petroleum's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.11) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.30) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.03) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.93) |
Star Petroleum Refining Backtested Returns
Star Petroleum Refining owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of -0.11, which indicates the firm had a -0.11 % return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Star Petroleum Refining exposes twenty-three different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please validate Star Petroleum's Variance of 6.39, coefficient of variation of (757.84), and Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.11) to confirm the risk estimate we provide. The entity has a beta of 0.37, which indicates possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Star Petroleum's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Star Petroleum is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, Star Petroleum Refining has a negative expected return of -0.28%. Please make sure to validate Star Petroleum's jensen alpha, treynor ratio, and the relationship between the standard deviation and total risk alpha , to decide if Star Petroleum Refining performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | -0.59 |
Good reverse predictability
Star Petroleum Refining has good reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Star Petroleum time series from 16th of December 2024 to 30th of January 2025 and 30th of January 2025 to 16th of March 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Star Petroleum Refining price movement. The serial correlation of -0.59 indicates that roughly 59.0% of current Star Petroleum price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.59 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.55 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.04 |
Star Petroleum Refining lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Star Petroleum stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Star Petroleum's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Star Petroleum returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Star Petroleum has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Star Petroleum regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Star Petroleum stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Star Petroleum stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Star Petroleum stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Star Petroleum Lagged Returns
When evaluating Star Petroleum's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Star Petroleum stock have on its future price. Star Petroleum autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Star Petroleum autocorrelation shows the relationship between Star Petroleum stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Star Petroleum Refining.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Star Petroleum financial ratios help investors to determine whether Star Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Star with respect to the benefits of owning Star Petroleum security.