Ryanair Holdings (Germany) Market Value
| RY4C Stock | EUR 19.35 0.76 4.09% |
| Symbol | Ryanair |
Ryanair Holdings 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Ryanair Holdings' stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Ryanair Holdings.
| 12/08/2024 |
| 01/07/2025 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Ryanair Holdings on December 8, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Ryanair Holdings plc or generate 0.0% return on investment in Ryanair Holdings over 30 days. Ryanair Holdings is related to or competes with AVITA Medical, Broadwind, PULSION Medical, Advanced Medical, Liberty Broadband, and Air Transport. More
Ryanair Holdings Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Ryanair Holdings' stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Ryanair Holdings plc upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.42 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0793 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 5.94 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.03) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.82 |
Ryanair Holdings Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Ryanair Holdings' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Ryanair Holdings' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Ryanair Holdings historical prices to predict the future Ryanair Holdings' volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0835 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.139 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.1076 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0878 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.7139 |
Ryanair Holdings plc Backtested Returns
At this point, Ryanair Holdings is very steady. Ryanair Holdings plc maintains Sharpe Ratio (i.e., Efficiency) of 0.13, which implies the firm had a 0.13% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-nine technical indicators for Ryanair Holdings plc, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the company. Please check Ryanair Holdings' Semi Deviation of 1.34, coefficient of variation of 1029.44, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0835 to confirm if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.19%. Ryanair Holdings has a performance score of 10 on a scale of 0 to 100. The company holds a Beta of 0.2, which implies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Ryanair Holdings' returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Ryanair Holdings is expected to be smaller as well. Ryanair Holdings plc right now holds a risk of 1.45%. Please check Ryanair Holdings plc coefficient of variation, jensen alpha, and the relationship between the downside deviation and standard deviation , to decide if Ryanair Holdings plc will be following its historical price patterns.
Auto-correlation | -0.32 |
Poor reverse predictability
Ryanair Holdings plc has poor reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Ryanair Holdings time series from 8th of December 2024 to 23rd of December 2024 and 23rd of December 2024 to 7th of January 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Ryanair Holdings plc price movement. The serial correlation of -0.32 indicates that nearly 32.0% of current Ryanair Holdings price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.32 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.46 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.05 |
Ryanair Holdings plc lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Ryanair Holdings stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Ryanair Holdings' stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Ryanair Holdings returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Ryanair Holdings has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Ryanair Holdings regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Ryanair Holdings stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Ryanair Holdings stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Ryanair Holdings stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Ryanair Holdings Lagged Returns
When evaluating Ryanair Holdings' market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Ryanair Holdings stock have on its future price. Ryanair Holdings autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Ryanair Holdings autocorrelation shows the relationship between Ryanair Holdings stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Ryanair Holdings plc.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Ryanair Stock
When determining whether Ryanair Holdings plc offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Ryanair Holdings' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Ryanair Holdings Plc Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Ryanair Holdings Plc Stock:Check out Ryanair Holdings Correlation, Ryanair Holdings Volatility and Ryanair Holdings Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Ryanair Holdings. You can also try the Bollinger Bands module to use Bollinger Bands indicator to analyze target price for a given investing horizon.
Ryanair Holdings technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.