Royce Opportunity Fund Market Value
| ROFCX Fund | USD 12.33 0.09 0.72% |
| Symbol | Royce |
Royce Opportunity 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Royce Opportunity's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Royce Opportunity.
| 12/22/2023 |
| 12/16/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Royce Opportunity on December 22, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Royce Opportunity Fund or generate 0.0% return on investment in Royce Opportunity over 360 days. Royce Opportunity is related to or competes with Tfa Alphagen, Franklin Growth, Small Pany, Ftfa Franklin, Qs Moderate, T Rowe, and Mid Cap. The funds investment adviser invests the funds assets primarily in equity securities of small-cap companies in an attemp... More
Royce Opportunity Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Royce Opportunity's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Royce Opportunity Fund upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.73 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.01) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 14.1 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.59) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.39 |
Royce Opportunity Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Royce Opportunity's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Royce Opportunity's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Royce Opportunity historical prices to predict the future Royce Opportunity's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0455 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.07) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.12) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.01) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.0487 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Royce Opportunity's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Royce Opportunity Backtested Returns
At this stage we consider Royce Mutual Fund to be not too volatile. Royce Opportunity maintains Sharpe Ratio (i.e., Efficiency) of 0.0254, which implies the entity had a 0.0254% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-seven technical indicators for Royce Opportunity, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the fund. Please check Royce Opportunity's Coefficient Of Variation of 1816.6, risk adjusted performance of 0.0455, and Semi Deviation of 1.6 to confirm if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0415%. The fund holds a Beta of 1.65, which implies a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Royce Opportunity will likely underperform.
Auto-correlation | 0.27 |
Poor predictability
Royce Opportunity Fund has poor predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Royce Opportunity time series from 22nd of December 2023 to 19th of June 2024 and 19th of June 2024 to 16th of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Royce Opportunity price movement. The serial correlation of 0.27 indicates that nearly 27.0% of current Royce Opportunity price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.27 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.32 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.31 |
Royce Opportunity lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Royce Opportunity mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Royce Opportunity's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Royce Opportunity returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Royce Opportunity has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Royce Opportunity regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Royce Opportunity mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Royce Opportunity mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Royce Opportunity mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Royce Opportunity Lagged Returns
When evaluating Royce Opportunity's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Royce Opportunity mutual fund have on its future price. Royce Opportunity autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Royce Opportunity autocorrelation shows the relationship between Royce Opportunity mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Royce Opportunity Fund.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Other Information on Investing in Royce Mutual Fund
Royce Opportunity financial ratios help investors to determine whether Royce Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Royce with respect to the benefits of owning Royce Opportunity security.
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