The Gold Bullion Fund Market Value

QGLCX Fund  USD 21.48  0.15  0.69%   
The Gold's market value is the price at which a share of The Gold trades on a public exchange. It measures the collective expectations of The Gold Bullion investors about its performance. The Gold is trading at 21.48 as of the 1st of March 2025; that is 0.69 percent down since the beginning of the trading day. The fund's open price was 21.63.
With this module, you can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of The Gold Bullion and determine expected loss or profit from investing in The Gold over a given investment horizon. Check out The Gold Correlation, The Gold Volatility and The Gold Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on The Gold.
Symbol

Please note, there is a significant difference between The Gold's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if The Gold is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, The Gold's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.

The Gold 'What if' Analysis

In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to The Gold's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of The Gold.
0.00
03/12/2023
No Change 0.00  0.0 
In 1 year 11 months and 22 days
03/01/2025
0.00
If you would invest  0.00  in The Gold on March 12, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding The Gold Bullion or generate 0.0% return on investment in The Gold over 720 days. The Gold is related to or competes with Hartford Moderate, Transamerica Asset, Growth Allocation, Guidemark Large, Gmo Asset, Washington Mutual, and Touchstone Large. The fund will invest primarily in Gold bullion-related exchange-traded funds exchange-traded notes exchange-traded futur... More

The Gold Upside/Downside Indicators

Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure The Gold's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess The Gold Bullion upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.

The Gold Market Risk Indicators

Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for The Gold's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as The Gold's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use The Gold historical prices to predict the future The Gold's volatility.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of The Gold's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
20.5321.4822.43
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
20.3921.3422.29
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
20.3921.3422.29
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
21.3221.8522.38
Details

Gold Bullion Backtested Returns

At this stage we consider The Mutual Fund to be very steady. Gold Bullion owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of 0.13, which indicates the fund had a 0.13 % return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for The Gold Bullion, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the fund. Please validate The Gold's Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.07, coefficient of variation of 1094.43, and Semi Deviation of 1.04 to confirm if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.12%. The entity has a beta of 0.0461, which indicates not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, the Gold's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding the Gold is expected to be smaller as well.

Auto-correlation

    
  0.01  

Virtually no predictability

The Gold Bullion has virtually no predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between The Gold time series from 12th of March 2023 to 6th of March 2024 and 6th of March 2024 to 1st of March 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Gold Bullion price movement. The serial correlation of 0.01 indicates that just 1.0% of current The Gold price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
Correlation Coefficient0.01
Spearman Rank Test0.09
Residual Average0.0
Price Variance1.9

Gold Bullion lagged returns against current returns

Autocorrelation, which is The Gold mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting The Gold's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of The Gold returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that The Gold has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
   Current and Lagged Values   
       Timeline  

The Gold regressed lagged prices vs. current prices

Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If The Gold mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if The Gold mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in The Gold mutual fund over time.
   Current vs Lagged Prices   
       Timeline  

The Gold Lagged Returns

When evaluating The Gold's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of The Gold mutual fund have on its future price. The Gold autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, The Gold autocorrelation shows the relationship between The Gold mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in The Gold Bullion.
   Regressed Prices   
       Timeline  

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Other Information on Investing in The Mutual Fund

The Gold financial ratios help investors to determine whether The Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in The with respect to the benefits of owning The Gold security.
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