The Gold Bullion Fund Market Value
| QGLCX Fund | USD 22.46 0.02 0.09% |
| Symbol | Gold |
Gold Bullion 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Gold Bullion's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Gold Bullion.
| 12/17/2024 |
| 03/17/2025 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Gold Bullion on December 17, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding The Gold Bullion or generate 0.0% return on investment in Gold Bullion over 90 days. The fund will invest primarily in Gold bullion-related exchange-traded funds exchange-traded notes exchange-traded futur... More
Gold Bullion Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Gold Bullion's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess The Gold Bullion upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.0 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.2928 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 3.94 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.59) | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.71 |
Gold Bullion Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Gold Bullion's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Gold Bullion's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Gold Bullion historical prices to predict the future Gold Bullion's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1666 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.1676 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.2944 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.282 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (3.18) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Gold Bullion's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Gold Bullion Backtested Returns
Gold Bullion appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. Gold Bullion holds Efficiency (Sharpe) Ratio of 0.21, which attests that the entity had a 0.21 % return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for Gold Bullion, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the entity. Please utilize Gold Bullion's Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.1666, market risk adjusted performance of (3.17), and Downside Deviation of 1.0 to validate if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. The fund retains a Market Volatility (i.e., Beta) of -0.0545, which attests to not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Gold Bullion are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Gold Bullion is likely to outperform the market.
Auto-correlation | 0.44 |
Average predictability
The Gold Bullion has average predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Gold Bullion time series from 17th of December 2024 to 31st of January 2025 and 31st of January 2025 to 17th of March 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Gold Bullion price movement. The serial correlation of 0.44 indicates that just about 44.0% of current Gold Bullion price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.44 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.41 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.09 |
Gold Bullion lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Gold Bullion mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Gold Bullion's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Gold Bullion returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Gold Bullion has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Gold Bullion regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Gold Bullion mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Gold Bullion mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Gold Bullion mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Gold Bullion Lagged Returns
When evaluating Gold Bullion's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Gold Bullion mutual fund have on its future price. Gold Bullion autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Gold Bullion autocorrelation shows the relationship between Gold Bullion mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in The Gold Bullion.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Other Information on Investing in Gold Mutual Fund
Gold Bullion financial ratios help investors to determine whether Gold Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Gold with respect to the benefits of owning Gold Bullion security.
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