Provident Trust Strategy Fund Market Value
| PROVX Fund | USD 19.52 0.19 0.96% |
| Symbol | Provident |
Provident Trust 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Provident Trust's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Provident Trust.
| 12/12/2024 |
| 01/11/2025 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Provident Trust on December 12, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Provident Trust Strategy or generate 0.0% return on investment in Provident Trust over 30 days. Provident Trust is related to or competes with Polen Growth, Edgewood Growth, Advantage Portfolio, Parnassus Mid, and Brown Advisory. The fund invests mainly in a limited number of multi-capitalization growth stocks More
Provident Trust Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Provident Trust's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Provident Trust Strategy upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.05) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 9.03 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.01) | |||
| Potential Upside | 0.8736 |
Provident Trust Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Provident Trust's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Provident Trust's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Provident Trust historical prices to predict the future Provident Trust's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.01) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.03) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.05) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.26) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Provident Trust's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Provident Trust Strategy Backtested Returns
Provident Trust Strategy maintains Sharpe Ratio (i.e., Efficiency) of -0.0414, which implies the entity had a -0.0414% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Provident Trust Strategy exposes twenty-two different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please check Provident Trust's Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.01), variance of 1.02, and Coefficient Of Variation of (4,847) to confirm the risk estimate we provide. The fund holds a Beta of 0.12, which implies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Provident Trust's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Provident Trust is expected to be smaller as well.
Auto-correlation | -0.12 |
Insignificant reverse predictability
Provident Trust Strategy has insignificant reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Provident Trust time series from 12th of December 2024 to 27th of December 2024 and 27th of December 2024 to 11th of January 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Provident Trust Strategy price movement. The serial correlation of -0.12 indicates that less than 12.0% of current Provident Trust price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.12 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.18 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.01 |
Provident Trust Strategy lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Provident Trust mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Provident Trust's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Provident Trust returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Provident Trust has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Provident Trust regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Provident Trust mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Provident Trust mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Provident Trust mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Provident Trust Lagged Returns
When evaluating Provident Trust's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Provident Trust mutual fund have on its future price. Provident Trust autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Provident Trust autocorrelation shows the relationship between Provident Trust mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Provident Trust Strategy.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Other Information on Investing in Provident Mutual Fund
Provident Trust financial ratios help investors to determine whether Provident Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Provident with respect to the benefits of owning Provident Trust security.
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